The NastyCast Podcast - Episode 3

On this edition of the Nastycast, we'll analyze the weeks news, talk about rebuilding a dynasty team, predict the future with our annual awards winners and playoff predictions, target some pitchers to stream in week one, and reprise our love for March Madness in our Dinner Madness Tournament.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+3.mp3

Dynasty Strategy: The Myth of the Rebuild

by Nathan Dokken

You don't need to blow up your team. No really, you don't. Don't go all Astros on your baseball league, because this is fantasy, not reality. You don't need to worry about how to price your burgers, if your seats are going to sell in September, when to bring up your prospects or who's going to sing the national anthem in three weeks. No matter how we try to mirror the real game of baseball, there's going to be a stark difference between what controls the outcomes of your fantasy squad and what factors into the Braves record finishing over .500. No matter how far your team seems to be from contention, you need to build your team for the very near future – not five years down the road.

Whether you've drafted your own team or taken over an abandoned one, the scenario here is the same: your team stinks. The exact strategy is going to vary wildly depending on your league size and depth, as well as the severity of your teams' TSP (Team Suck Percentage, a Dokkenmetric). In head to head leagues you should be especially optimistic considering the flukiness of some outcomes. As far as I'm concerned, any team can win any week in head to head points formats, whether points or categories. Roto leagues may take a little longer to bring yourself into contention, but again, there's no reason to consider blowing up your team for a run at dominance in five years. I'll tell you why.

First, who knows how long your league will exist. This may sound trite, but it is indeed one of the main factors to take into consideration. Is this a group of personal friends, or a bunch of strangers that happened upon the same public league? Is this a money league? Has there been a high rate of owner turnover? There are many factors to consider, and if you have questions as to the longevity of the league, you will want to build for the near future even more.

Secondly, anything can happen in a given year. Last year I could have asked you before the season whether you thought Ryan Braun had a better shot to win NL MVP or to miss most of the season due to injury and suspension. What would you have said? Especially with pitchers, you really don't know when an injury is going to occur, when a pitcher will get historically lucky or unlucky, when a surprise prospect will be plucked from A-ball and win Rookie of the Year or when your crummy second baseman decides to steal 20 more bases than he ever has before, for no apparent reason. Injuries, fluke seasons and career high or low seasons can happen at any time for any player, and cumulatively they can either cripple a strong team in your league, or bring a team from the cellar suddenly bursting into a spot in the money.

To enforce this point by example, in a 20-team league I play in has little parity. Horrendously little parity, in fact. It's a head to head points league, and the team that had won the title the previous year is supremely stacked. We're talking first and second round talent at just about every position. Then there are teams with scrubs up and down the roster. This is pretty normal in a dynasty league that has been around for a long time and gone through its fair share of owners, good and bad. Anyway, the team that won the title in 2012 still scored the second most points in the league in 2013, and with 8 of 20 teams making the playoffs, he missed the playoffs entirely. Had he not lost Ryan Braun and Carlos Gonzalez in the second half, there's a strong chance he would have made the playoffs and quite possibly won the league a second year running. Conversely, a team who finished third from last in the league in 2012 made some smart trades and wound up losing in the championship round in '13. As much as trading and roster management is a skill, a certain amount of the outcomes in our leagues is just plain luck.

So how, in a vacuum, does one approach a rebuild? For starters, grab a tasty beverage and plunge into the bowels of your league. Scour your waiver wire or free agent pool for upside players. Look for guys that are in preseason position battles or are an injury away from inheriting a key role, such as setup men that could turn into closers should anything happen to their teams' closer. Who could win the final rotation spot for an MLB team? Is there a prospect who could be called up at some point in the year? If you have a spot, cut a scrub and pick him up. If a rookie gets called up and gets off to a blistering start, chances are you can find someone to trade said rookie to and get a substantial return. Whether it be a legitimate performance from the rookie or if he's clearly performing over his head, someone in your league wants this hot new bat and will overpay to get him.

Which leads us to potentially the most important part of rebuilding your squad: trading. Get to know your league mates' rosters, their preferences, the direction they are trying to take their teams. Check into the league trade block frequently and send trade offers with even more frequency. Now, the art of trading is a subject worthy of an entire blog, so I won't get too deep into it here. What you really want to do is find a market inefficiency in your league. Follow that up with a flurry of trade offers, as appropriate for each team. Allow me to digress.

The assumption for this blog is that your league is beyond year one, as hopefully you aren't already rebuilding in the first year of your league. After a few years, there will be three tiers of teams in your league: contenders, rebuilders, and middling teams treading water. If you are a contender, there is no need to rebuild. Stop reading now and go enjoy some trail mix or something. However, if you have a rebuilding or middling team, this is where you can really gain some ground in a hurry.

Everyone wants to acquire young talent to build around. So give the people what they want, and look to get strong returns for your young studs (assuming you have any). Target rebuilding teams and gladly take any veteran studs off their hands in exchange for some youth. Also target some of the top teams who may have depth and can afford to trade you players who could be starting on your squad. While you may not want to get rid of superstars like Xander Bogaerts or Addison Russell, if you can trade Prospect X for Currently Producing Star A, B and C, it doesn't take many of those trades before you are in playoff contention in any league. While these young stars are likely to produce strong numbers in their prime, they may be mediocre for several years before blossoming into top round picks – not to mention the less elite prospects and young players that never pan out at all.

If your team is super awful and absolutely no one wants to trade for anyone on your team, or maybe your league just isn't big on trading (which is especially terrible), that will sure throw a wrench into things. Amass as many top draft picks as you can and when people fall in love with the ceiling of the prospects on your roster you should be able to flip them for major league talent, once again shortening the timeframe of your rebuild.

If you really want to take the slow route, hoarding top prospects and young talent and waiting for them to hit their primes and run at the title, power to you. I have nothing against that strategy, but I most certainly lack the patience for it. I want to win, and win now. Hopefully these strategies can help you do the same.

NastyCast Episode 2

Nate & Joe discuss their points league drafts, Introduce "that's a clown question, bro," Break down the greatest breakfast foods, and interview 2 very old best friends Herber Mendelbaum and Harry Carey.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+2-mp3.mp3

2014 Fantasy Baseball Busts

2014 Fantasy Baseball Busts

by Nathan Dokken

Hey, I like busts as much as the next guy! Er wait...wrong sort of bust. Moving right along, here's 5 hitters and 5 pitchers I think will sink your team this year, and underperform given their average draft position (ADP).

The Hitters

1. Chris Davis, 1B, Bal Orioles – Davis won people their leagues last year, as a mid-to-late round pick he absolutely exploded, launching 53 homers with 138 RBI and slashing .286/.370/.634. His success is attributed to his more patient approach at the plate, as he also upped his BB% from 6.6% in 2012 to 10.7% in 2013. So what's not to love? First of all, with all the improvements he made in his game last year, he still struck out a disgusting 29% of the time. Second, after being otherwordly in the first half, he struggled in the second half, batting only .245 with 89 strikeouts in 280 PA's. With strikeout rates that high, his BA is very likely to regress to around the .260-.270 range, more in line with his career norm. He also posted a ridiculously unsustainable 29.6% home run/fly ball rate, which will likely regress to a more normal (for him – still above league average) 20-25%. Finally, there's his price tag: as the 7^th overall player drafted, there's no where to go but down. Don't let “Crush” crush your chances at a title this year. First base is very deep, and with names like Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Abreu offering similar power numbers for a much lower price tag, I'd be looking elsewhere in the first round. Projection: 650 PA's, 38 HR, 115 RBI, .265AVG
2. Matt Kemp, OF, LA Dodgers – After missing enormous chunks of the last few seasons with myriad injuries, I'm not touching Kemp with a 10 foot kielbasa this year. I have my doubts he will be running as frequently recovering from hamstring and ankle injuries, and shoulder injuries have been known to sap power. If he comes back this year and has some success I'll be glad, since he was such a great player before the injuries. But with a hefty ADP of 49, I'll gladly pass on him for safer options like Starling Marte (ADP 52), Wil Myers (ADP 64) or Jason Heyward (ADP 72). Projection: 450 PA's, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 10 SB, .275 AVG
3. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Bos Red Sox – Middlebrooks has power out the wazoo. That's about the only nice thing I have to say about him. He's got a powerful wazoo. Unfortunately he has contact issues (a below average 74.5% contact rate) and posted nearly a 1:5 BB:K ratio and a .227 BA least year in 374 PA's, eventually getting demoted to AAA. He was actually better upon being recalled towards the end of the year, but I have strong doubts that his minor league stint fixed his contact and strikeout issues. With uber-OBP prospect Garin Cecchini waiting in AAA for an opportunity to make a difference in Boston, if Middlebrooks doesn't refine his wazoo, he could be demoted again. Fortunately, with a 184 ADP as the 20^th third baseman drafted, there's plenty of other safer, upside-oozing wazoos like Nolan Arenado (ADP 202) and Anthony Rendon (ADP 263) to wait on. Projection: 300 PA's, 13 HR, 42 RBI, .233 AVG
4. Michael Cuddyer, OF, Col Rockies – In between prune juice chugging sessions (to stay regular), the 35 year old Michael Cuddyer will try his best to replicate his impressive 2013 numbers. I have my doubts. Even though he will play half his games in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field, Cuddy had a ridiculous .382 BABIP last year, propelling his career-high (by 47 points!) .331 BA. He can still flash a little power (although he probably farts when he swings, hard to control your bowels at that elderly age), but his lower average and seriously old age will sap it into mediocrity. Maybe if he finds the fountain of youth (which spritzes Milk of Magnesia, FYI) he can still slap 16-18 homers with his cane. Otherwise, he's going to cripple your team with your 104^th ADP (33^rd OF). There's so many other outfielders with upside in this area, just avoid this old bag at all costs. Projection: 520 PA's, 11 HR, 60 RBI, .260 AVG
5. Josh Hamilton, OF, LA Angels – Last year, Josh Hamilton disappointed in a huge way. I'm banking on a repeat. Heading into his age 33 season, just about every arrow is pointing down for him. Don't ask me where these arrows are, just go with it. At this point you're probably skimming over these words while paying more attention to SportsCenter. Pay attention! Hamilton's batted ball distance fell substantially last year, and now playing in the pitchers park in Anaheim rather than Texas where he hit 43 home runs only 2 years ago, that's really not a good thing. Couple that with a 25% K rate, a consistent injury risk (he's actually a risk to miss opening day), a mediocre BA, and a miserable 70% contact rate, and you're looking at a guy that could be on the outs of fantasy relevance. I'd be selling on his name value if I still could in dynasty leagues, and avoiding him in redraft leagues. As the 24^th OF drafted and with an ADP of 71, I'd be taking Heyward instead, who is the next player being drafted on average. But of course he's allegedly chewing tobacco again, so that means he's going to his 40 home runs again...right? Projection: 600 PA's, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .255 AVG

The Pitchers

1. A.J. Burnett, RHP, Phi Phillies – I always dug Burnett growing up because of his sweet necklace. Unfortunately, for as great a pitcher as Burnett was last year in Pittsburgh, he's another year older (37) and finds himself in Philadelphia, defensively a downgrade from the progressive shifts the Pirates deploy. Citizens Bank Park in Philly is also a much friendlier ballpark for offense than he had at PNC Park in 2013. Given these factors, I'd expect his HR/9 to rise from his impressive 0.52 in '13 to more like where he was at with the Yankees when it varied from 1.09 to 1.47 from '09-'11. Therefore, even if he can limit his walks as he did as a Pirate, I'd expect an inflation of his ERA in 2014. It's also worth mentioning that even though wins are fluky, they are part of our fake game, and as bad as the Phillies are expected to be this year, wins are going to be few and far between even if he does hold up for 200 innings. As SP48 with an ADP of 183 it shouldn't be hard to avoid him, and even at a discount from that draft spot I'm not interested. Projection: 175 IP, 162 K, 4.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2. Jered Weaver, RHP, LA Angles – As if it weren't hard enough to like a guy whose name, Jered, is spelled with two “e”'s, he's been steadily declining in almost every underlying metric for the past 2 years. Once a workhorse, posting 200+ inning seasons from '09-'11, Weaver dropped to 188.2 in '12, and due to an elbow injury threw only 154.1 last year. His K/9 has also dipped well below league average, his fastball velocity has declined to a terrifying 86 MPH, and his ground ball rate dropped as his line drive rate climbed. The only thing barring a potential implosion is his excellent control, which has remained steady despite the erosion of his other skills. With an ADP of 107, SP26, he's being drafted off name value with hopes of a bounce back. Unless he has arm replacement surgery I can't see that happening. On a side note, I'm third in line for arm replacement surgery myself, so my chances of dominating the major leagues are looking up! Projection: 180 IP, 135 K, 4.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
3. CC Sabathia, LHP, NY Yankees – For all the players that report to camp “in the best shape of their lives”, in the case of CC Sabathia, that may actually be true for the 2014 season. Sabathia lost around 40 pounds this offseason, which I would normally applaud. The downside of this is that he did this last year as well, and his diminished size lead, at least in part, to his diminished velocity. So far this spring training his fastball velocity has been even worse, allegedly sitting around 86, maxing out at 89. Typically pitchers do work their velocity up gradually, but it is abnormal to be down 5 MPH, and has me concerned. He has added a splitter to his arsenal for 2014 to help offset his lost velocity, but this seems to be a last-ditch effort to save his career. He's been well over 200 IP for almost his entire career, including many postseason starts. These innings have finally caught up to the 33 year old, and I fear his days of sub-4 ERA's are over. Some are still optimistic on him, as the 45^th SP drafted (ADP 167). His only upside floats on the hopes of his new splitter keeping hitters off-balance enough to keep the ball in the park, but I see far more downside than upside with CC. Projection: 192 IP, 160 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Bal Orioles – Last year was a dandy for Ubaldo, who struck out 9.56 per 9 innings and enjoyed the lowest ERA of his career, 3.30. I can't say I foresee a repeat however, as just two years ago he threw up a hideous 4.84 BB% and a 5.40 ERA, losing 17 games for the Indians. While he's found a new home in Baltimore, it's an offensively friendly ballpark, and his pitching mechanics are so inconsistent you never know what kind of start you're going to get. He's a consistently healthy pitcher, easily capable of making 32 starts for your squad, but the fact that he may barely eclipse 180 innings in those 32 starts may keep him from qualifying from many a win. His WHIP will kill you regardless of his strikeouts, and unless he harnesses his control there is little upside from his SP59 draft slot. He's an endgamer in almost any format, so I'd be saving myself the headache and going with a younger, higher upside guy like a Tillman, Kluber or Parker. Projection: 182 IP, 170 K, 4.76 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
5. Michael Wacha, RHP, StL Cardinals – There, now you can't say I'm just picking on old guys. Wacha is a thrilling young righty, who came up last year and destroyed as a 22 year old, helping the Cards to the World Series. He's a guy you've got to love in dynasty leagues, but he's being overdrafted in single season leagues. As great as his numbers were last year, he only threw 64.2 regular season innings. He's also only a two-pitch starter, throwing either his fastball or changeup 92% of the time. As good as those pitches are, he will need to develop his breaking ball to keep hitters off balance for a full season starting. The Cardinals may also opt to limit his innings per start in his first full season of MLB action to keep him healthy for a playoff run. This limits his chances for wins and lowers his value in points leagues where you get points for innings pitched. He's the 25^th SP drafted (ADP 106), and there are a lot more proven pitchers in that area that will give you around 200 innings, which is certainly a prerequisite for SP1/SP2's on my fantasy roster. Projection: 175 IP, 175 K, 3.26 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

The NastyCast Fantasy Baseball Podcast - Episode 1

Nate & Joe discuss their Die Nasty Dynasty Baseball League's draft.  Special segment:  Pronounce that Prospect!

Intro & Outro music provided by Celestria - The Architect

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+1-mp3.mp3

2014 Sleepers

2014 Sleepers

by Nathan Dokken

This year I've decided to go ahead and do you all a favor and write up some sweet sleepers for your brain. All I ask is to keep in mind your individual league format and keep that in line with expectations. These 10 “sleepers” are guys I feel will outperform their draft slots and turn a profit for your fantasy squad. Now, on with the fantasy goodness!

The Hitters

1. Oswaldo Arcia, OF, MN Twins – Oswaldo Arcia is a power hitting lefty for your Minnesota Twins. Last year in his first taste of the majors as a 22 year old he struggled, striking out in 31% of his plate appearances and leading to a mediocre .251 batting average. He struggled mightily against breaking pitches, a problem that can only be alleviated with experience. Well he should get plenty of experience this year as a full-time outfielder, and if he can improve his pitch recognition along the way, that batting average should improve. He hit over .300 pretty consistently throughout the minors and eventually his BA should settle around the .280-.290 mark. This real upside here is the power – last year as a rookie, he slugged .430 with a .179 ISO over his 378 PA's, not bad numbers for a 22 year old in (predominantly) a pitchers park. The counting stats may not be great since the Twins lineup is rather limp, but with an ADP of 301 (79^th OF off the board), look to nab him as your 5^th outfielder with some nice upside on draft day. 2014 Projection: 600 PA's, 23 HR, 65 RBI, .270 AVG
2. Adam Eaton, OF, ChiSox – Last year at this time, Eaton was all the rage. Garnering Rookie of the Year predictions as a Diamondback, he was going to rock everyone's world. Well as it turned out he missed half the year with injury, hit only .252 in 277 PA's and got traded to the White Sox. Well folks, lets turn that misfortune into profit. While it is a bit disconcerting that Eaton opted for rehab rather than surgery to fix his bum UCL, he's allegedly back to full health and has a green light on the basebaths in 2014, leading off for the Sox. With a delicious 88% contact rate in his 380 Major League PA's, I see that BA climbing steeply with some continued improvement in his line drive rate. Combine that with a strong track record of plate discipline (he slashed .381/.456/.539 in 562 PA's in AAA in 2012) and he's oozing upside like caramel from a squished Milky Way. His walks will make him plenty relevant in points and OBP leagues, and 30+ steals will contribute nicely to your roto leagues as well. Land him as your 5^th OF in a 12 team league – with an ADP of 218 and the 60^th OF off the board, there's no need to reach. Projection: 700 PA's, 85 R, 5 HR, 35 SB, .290 AVG
3. Brad Miller, 2B/SS, Sea Mariners – Miller got the call last year after raking in AA and AAA, and was pretty solid in his 335 PA's in the Majors, slashing .265/.318/./418. I expect marked improvement from the “generic white boy named” Miller in nearly every category. In his 999 minor league PA's, he posted double digit walk rates in all but his first 59 PA's in low A ball. For a guy who's only played pro ball exclusively for a few years, he has shown the skills to adjust quickly to more advanced pitching and I expect him to raise his 7.2% BB% from 2013. Assuming the M's hit him 1 or 2 in the order in front of Cano, that should lead him into plenty of run scoring opportunities. He's never been a beast on the basepaths, but his solid contact % and low BABIP from a year ago (.294 was actually 39 points below any previous season for him) should allow for a higher BA, OBP, and a few more homers. As the 223^rd player taken in drafts (20^th SS/2B drafted) I'd gladly take him over the likes of Jed Lowrie, Howie Kendrick, and Alex Guerrero, all of whom are going 1-3 rounds higher. Projection: 650 PA's, 16 HR, 85 R, 10 SB, .280 AVG
4. Jason Heyward, OF, Atl Braves - “Ow, my friggin appendix!!” “Ow, my friggin jaw!!” “Damn, I'm sick of eating through a straw!!” “Damn, this facemask is whack!!” Who am I? Well I already wrote his name ya dumbtard, it's Jason Heyward. Dude had a rough go of it last year, but they were fluke injuries. Even through them he managed to net 440 PA's, although they were still disappointing given peoples expectations after going 27/21 in 2012. He also battled through shoulder soreness and a hamstring strain last year, the latter of which may account for his paltry 2 steals. His batting eye was better than ever though as he posted a 10.9% walk rate and cut his K% from 23.3% in 2012 to a much nicer 16.6%. He hit leadoff down the stretch for the Braves and excelled, so there's no reason for the Braves to take him out of that role heading into 2014. If he can keep his OBP around .350, and I think he can, there should be ample runs to be scored atop that potent lineup. I'm not sure how much he will be running however, as the Braves as a whole weren't particularly aggressive on the basebaths, and 21 was a career high for him in 2012. All told, Heyward is being discounted for his fluky injury-riddled season last year, a mega case of recency bias rearing its ugly head. As the 72^nd overall player drafted and 26^th OF, Heyward is creeping up draft boards, but can still be taken as your OF2 with top 10-15 OF upside. Projection: 675 PA's, 100 R, 28 HR, 7 SB, .260 AVG
5. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, ChiSox – Now this is a hard one to justify. We have no real statistical evidence to back up Abreu will be good at all, as the Dominican stats can be fluky. This one is more of a gut call, a calculated risk based on potential upside and average draft position. Said ADP is currently 98 overall, 17^th 1B drafted. Everyone who's seen him play says he's the best player to ever come out of Cuba, some calling him the “Cuban Barry Bonds”. Clay Davenport, who translates Cuban stats to approximate MLB equivalencies, pretty much nailed Cespedes' production in the majors. His translation of what Abreu would have done from last year is a .298/.393/.576 slash line. Those are some very nice numbers. Some scouts question his bat speed, and voice concerns over a low BA due to inability to catch up to premium velocity (something that very few pitchers have in Cuba), but one thing that no one can question is his massive raw power. If he can indeed adjust to MLB pitching and post respectable K% and BA, his power will vault him much, much higher than his price tag will cost you. There are few players in baseball that have 40+ HR potential, none of which will be this cheap on draft day. Projection: 650 PA's, 35 HR, 90 RBI, .260 AVG

The Pitchers

1. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Mia Marlins – Whoa, whoa, easy there big guy. No need to hurl all those expletives my way. Yes, I know this is a sleeper column. YES, I know the Fern is already being drafted 38^th overall as the 8^th pitcher off the board. What I'm telling you is that's not high enough. Now, I can't blame you if you want to take the safe route and nab a more established pitcher like Scherzer of Cliff Lee. But let's quickly look at the Fern's numbers from 2013: 172.2 IP (28 starts), 12-6, 9.75 K/9, 3.02 BB/9, 2.19 ERA. Ace numbers, one of the best rookie seasons of all time...and he was a 20 year old that had never pitched above High-A. I'll freely admit I passed on him in every league last year thinking the Marlins are insane throwing a kid to the wolves like that, much to my regret. Needless to say I've come around on the kid and learned from my mistakes. One might think that over 172.2 innings, the kid must have worn down. Not the case, in fact...he got better. Since the Marlins were capping his innings per start, he began pitching more to contact to induce grounders and chew up more innings. Well, his innings shouldn't be as much of a concern this year, although Miami may still shut him down around 200 just to preserve their star pitcher for the future. Wins will still be hard to come by playing for the Marlins, but everything else you get from Fernandez is delicious Cuban gravy. His arsenal is the stuff of dreams, and those 200 innings will be as good as you get from guys outside of Kershaw and Darvish. If you bail on those guys and take Fernandez as a cheaper option in the 3rd-4^th round as your staff ace, you can still turn a profit on that selection while also having your first 2 picks fortify your hitting. Projection: 200 IP, 225 K, 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
2. Justin Masterson, RHP, Cle Indians – Now here's a guy I never thought I'd be writing about in a sleeper column. I've always had a distaste for him due to his high propensity for blow up starts. That propensity is still there, mind you, but it's the whole picture that's improved. Namely, his step forward he took against left-handed batters in 2013. In 2011 and 2012, his batting average against (BAA) lefties was .286 and .288. In '13, he dropped that to .245, while also dropping his BAA vs righties nearly 30 points. He also got much better as the season wore on – his final numbers (3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) aren't completely indicative of how good he was in the second half last year. His first half numbers: 135.1 IP, 3.72 ERA. Second half: 57.2 IP, 2.81 ERA. Granted the second half is a smaller sample size, but the point remains. Oh yeah, and he upped his K/9 by 2.15, reduced his walks and was about on par with his FIP and xFIP. Way down at SP50, 187^th off the board, I like his chances to crack the top 30 this year. Projection: 200 IP, 210 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
3. Clay Buchholz, RHP, BoSox – Buchholz was phenomenal in 2013. 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP. So why is he dropping all the way down to SP52, the 197^th player drafted? In a word, health. The annually injured righty managed only 108.1 innings before missing the rest of the season. So how did he not only up his K/9 by almost 2 and lower his ERA to the lowest of his career? Much of the praise has to go to the Red Sox pitching coach Juan Nieves, hired after the 2012 season, for ironing out Buchholz' mechanics and timing. While I can't project a sub-2 ERA again, a sub-3 ERA is conceivable. If he can stay healthy, and that's a massive if, his ceiling is immense. Projection: 165 IP, 150 K, 2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
4. Rex Brothers, LHP, Col Rockies – Upon the departure of the elderly Rafael Betancourt at the end of the 2013 season, everyone thought “Well, Rex has waited long enough, looks like he finally will get a shot at being the full time closer in Colorado.” And then the Rockies went out and said “Screw you all!” and signed 41-year old LaTroy Hawkins in the offseason. They inexplicably dropped $2.5 million on another relic to block Brothers, who filled in for Betancourt admirably when he was injured in '13. Although having a lefty closer isn't the norm, Brothers doesn't have terrible platoon splits. He also doesn't have great control (4.81 BB/9 in '13) but his 10+K/9 is enough to make up for a high walk rate as a reliever. Due to the fact that Hawkins more or less has the closer job to open the season, Brothers has dropped all the way to 233^rd overall, the 33^rd RP off the board, behind the likes of Neftali Feliz (not guaranteed the closer job, having his own problems), Tommy Hunter (apparently closing in Baltimore, unproven), and Jose Veras (hot garbage ratios, may not keep the job in Chicago). It's only a matter of time until Brothers overtakes Hawkins for the gig in Colorado, and in the meantime he should present you with a nice ERA and K's, although the WHIP may remain ugly if he can't harness his control better. Projection: 67 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 25 SV
5. Patrick Corbin, LHP, Ari Diamondbacks – Corbin came somewhat out of nowhere last year, winning a starting job out of spring training after beating out better known names like Trevor Bauer and Randall Delgado. He proceeded to impress beyond belief through the first half of the season, posting a 2.35 ERA in 130.1 innings. Unfortunately the second half turned ugly for the young lefty, as he put up a 5.19 ERA in 78 innings. His velocity declined, a strong indication that he was probably just tired. It's also a possibility batters figured out a pitch or two, perhaps his sequencing became predictable, or maybe he was tipping his pitches. Whatever the case, I expect an adjustment to be made on his part and a return to form will ensue, with the possibility of upside coming from his SP46, ADP 187 draft position. Projection: 215 IP, 187 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.14 WHIP (UPDATE: Corbin has unfortunately undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2014 season. I wish him well in his recovery.)