NastyCast S2 Episode 1 - strawberry marmalade

On this edition of the NastyCast Nate and Joe find out they have a lot more in common than they thought as they discuss off season transactions.  If you love the NastyCast and baseball you will love the discussion on 50 players destinations and how they will affect their Fantasy values....topped with the ever so famous athlete/animal trivia.  Listen/Enjoy/Rate.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/NastyCast+S2+-+Offseason+premier.mp3

The NastyCast 2014 Fantasy Baseball Finale

The Final episode of the 2014 season is here.  Nate & Joe recap their past season's success stories, take a look into how they did with their predictions this year, and find out how many lines are getting snorted off Wendy's back.  This episode is capped off with The first ever NastyCast Rap Off & some Nintendo Madness. Thank you for your patronage.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/The+Nasty+Cast+-+Finale.mp3

The NastyCast Episode 20

The twentieth edition of the NastyCast brings you more Fantasy Baseball news, that includes a discussion on Tulo and CarGo's values next year, a elaborate discussion on Chris Carter, some Fier puns, and some more hate on Twins pitchers.  It is also the return of the fan favorite Herb, Harry, and Nate fix stuff.  This episode also features an  update from Harvey Dinkleman.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast+-+Episode+20+.mp3

The NastyCast Episode 19

Another week of Fantasy Baseball News is here!!  Get the latest and greatest from the crew of the NastyCast in the 19th installment of the show.  I'm running out of prepositions to use so the rest of the show includes Joe's Dynasty Second Base Rankings, also a quick recap of the trade deadline, an update of Wendy's back bets.  Finished off with everyones favorite bit athlete/animal trivia!!

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast+-+Episode+19.mp3

The NastyCast Episode 18

Joe is back!  Hopefully that will give the ratings a bit of a boost.  Nate and Joe finally give their futures game recap, the crew talks the latest fantasy baseball news, along with MLB trades past, present, and future.  Capped off with an in-depth conversation about a bear vs a squid fist-fight on the moon....

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast+-+Episode+18.mp3

The NastyCast Episode 17

What do Nate and Jesse do when Joe is gone for yet another episode of The NastyCast?  They produce an absolute gem of a podcast, filled with laughs & usable fantasy content that all people can enjoy.  Nate & Jesse discuss the latest Fantasy baseball news, a new game of "What does it mean, Basil", topped of with some would you rather, and finally another email from our #1 fan Jacob.  Listen, Rate, Review, & Enjoy!

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast+-+Episode+17+.mp3

The NastyCast Episode 16

On this week's addition of The NastyCast, Nate and Joe bring you the Fantasy All-Star team, discuss the latest injuries, and talk about "The Greyhound's" arrival in Oakland.  Capped off with Action Hero Madness and The top 5 reasons to be excited for the futures game.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+16.mp3

The NastyCast Episode 15

Nate pays off his debt and its brutal!  Joe picks the perfect secret word while Jesse's word was just enough to "finish" the deal.  Joe and Nate bring you the latest news in Fantasy baseball and discuss how good Jose Altuve really is.  Topped with the top 5 things on Joe's Tombstone and Athlete/Animal. Listen, Enjoy, Comment, Email, Rate & Review....

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+15.mp3

The Nasty Cast Episode 14

The Nasty Cast Episode 14 the real one!  We are proud to welcome from stangraphs.com and The Backup Catcher Podcast Van Shipley to the show.  Van subs for Joe in this weeks edition and makes a BIG impression on Nate and Jesse.  I apologize for the Mic Volumes as the skype recorder obviously felt Van's voice was more important.  Listen, Enjoy, Comment, Email, and Rate & Review on iTunes....

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast--episode+14-1.mp3

The Nasty Cast Episode 13

On this week's edition of the nasty cast Joe calls in from afar, Nate calls it episode 14, and MORS gets even.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast--Episode+14.mp3

The NastyCast - Episode 12 ft. Tim McLeod

This weeks edition of the Nasty Cast we welcome the Great Tim McLeod of rotorob.com and Fantasy Baseball Live podcast.  Tim goes through the gauntlet of a Nate and Joe interview. The crew from thefantasyamateurs.com talks the latest fantasy baseball news and finish 90's movie madness.  Enjoy!

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast--episode+12.mp3

The Nasty Cast Episode 11 featuring Rich Wilson

It's our greatest achievement yet, this episode the crew welcome Prospect 361 and Fantasy Baseball Live host Rich Wilson himself.  Followed by horror/other movie madness. Enjoy!

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+11.mp3

The NastyCast Episode 10

The NastyCast Episode 10 takes you inside the mind of Jesse as we kick of our host interviews.  Joe and Nate discuss the latest and greatest news.  Nate brings another carton of Farm Fresh Eggs, and concluded with a top 15-Dynasty player breakdown from your favorite fantasy posters.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+10.mp3

Nasty Cast Episode 9

On the latest edition of the Nasty Cast the crew discusses some hot topics in fantasy news, including a discussion on Joey Votto, Prince Fieldler, and Dallas Keuchel.  Nate brings in another set of Farm Fresh Eggs to scramble and finally capped off with some more Movie MADNESS!

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+9.mp3

The NastyCast Episode 8

It's the triumphant return of Herb and Harry as they take care of the worlds problems.  This episode is definitely RATE R as Nate and Joe try to keep some decency in the first half of the episode.  Lots of fantasy talk regarding Jose Fernandez as Jesse breaks his silence and really speaks out this episode...ENJOY!!

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+8.mp3

The Mini Roto Challenge

As the second challenge of the year between Joe and Nate (each challenge won also counts as a line on the Dead Hookers' Back), the fellas have switched from streaming pitchers to a full fledged mini roto league. The Streaming Challenge concluded with Joe punching Nate square in the stomach, the audio of which you can find in Episode 7 of the NastyCast and the video is posted previously on this blog. Nate looks to avenge his loss, although he didn't have the best draft considering he thought he was drafting a points league team for much of the draft. That said anything can happen over the course of this tiny league, drafted prior to NastyCast episode 7 and lasting for 5 weeks. The categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, QS, K and SV. The positions are 1 catcher, 3 infielders, 3 outfielders and 5 pitchers and all players had to have had an ADP outside the top 200 according to fantasypros.com. Players will not be replaced even if they spend the duration of the challenge on the DL. Here are the teams:

Team Joe:
C - Devin Mesoraco
INF1 - Anthony Rendon
INF2 - Neil Walker
INF3 - Dee Gordon
OF1 - Charlie Blackmon
OF2 - Melky Cabrera
OF3 - George Springer
P1 - Scott Kazmir
P2 - Wily Peralta
P3 - Chris Archer
P4 - Martin Perez
P5 - Joakim Soria

Team Nate:
C - Miguel Montero
INF1 - Adam LaRoche
INF2 - Justin Morneau
INF3 - Erick Aybar
OF1 - Nori Aoki
OF2 - Angel Pagan
OF3 - Rajai Davis
P1 - Corey Kluber
P2 - Yordano Ventura
P3 - Jon Niese (originally Alex Wood but replaced after his move to the bullpen)
P4 - Ian Kennedy
P5 - Tommy Hunter

Who will win the first ever Mini Roto Challenge?! As they almighty Asia once proclaimed, only time will tell.

Joe punches Nate

A bonus clip for our patrons.  Enjoy watching Nate get gut punched by Joe, maybe next time Nate won't suck at streaming pitchers!

The NastyCast Episode 7

The latest and greatest from the crew at the NastyCast.  This week's episode brings out some long winded discussions in regards to Nate and Joe's new streaming challenge.  Also, included is your latest fantasy baseball news and some talk about what prospects might be brought up next.  This episode is highlighted by Nate paying his gambling debt to Joe (a good old fashioned gut punch).  Please email us with any comments, questions, or suggestion in regards to the show at nastycastpod@gmail.com

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+7.mp3

Nathan Dokken and the Burrito of Doom

by Nathan Dokken

Most people celebrate Cinco de Mayo with Coronas, tacos, tequila and sombreros. Or at least that's what I like to think everyone does, and it's what I'd do if  I didn't have a larger calling in life every fifth of May. The calling of greatness. The calling...of a 5 pound burrito. Which, in case you were curious, sounds like "eat meeeeee."

Yes, every year in sunny Bismarck, North Dakota on May 5th, my favorite Mexican restaurant in town (Taco Del Mar) holds the Cinco de Mondo challenge, in which a very hungry person can attempt to eat a 5 pound burrito in 30 minutes. Said burrito is quite delicious, just as all of their grub is, consisting of four 13-inch tortillas, rice, your choice of black or refried beans, your choice of ground beef or seasoned chicken, cheese and pico de gallo. To give you the scope of what this beast looks like, here is the before picture of my chosen burrito for the 2014 challenge.

It is basically the size of a newborn. I've attempted this challenge each of the last 2 years now, so I figured the third time is a charm. Since I'm still talking about attempting to conquer this god forsaken burrito, the reader can and has safely assumed that I have failed in both prior attempts at devouring this stomach shredder. The defeats have brought me equal parts shame and diarrhea.

But let's talk strategy. One does not simply walk into Taco Del Mar, sit down and eat a 5 pound burrito. It takes strategy, preparation (and, afterwards, some Preparation H). Year one all I did was fast for 24 hours leading up to the challenge. It worked alright, but I came up well short of eating the whole thing. Year two I felt better about the challenge, and even did some training a week beforehand, drinking a gallon of water with my dinners. It is just as unpleasant as you imagine, and probably worse. I enjoyed a good crowd of friends and coworkers with me that day, there only to cheer me on. I indeed failed however, and in fact ate somehow less than the year prior when I hadn't done any training. Where I believe I erred was that when I fasted the 24 hours beforehand, I didn't drink water to keep my stomach expanded, and it shrunk on me.

This year I modified my strategy in several aspects. First, whereas I'd gone with refried beans and ground beef both prior years, this year I went chicken and black beans. As far as training however, this year I didn't put forth the effort I did a year ago. I had been dieting all year (and dropped 30 pounds successfully) and was actually going to skip the challenge this year as I didn't want to disrupt my diet. However, some of my coworkers were having none of that and went as far as to sponsor me and pay for my burrito just because they enjoyed watching me eat like a pig, apparently. I can't say no to a free burrito, so I immediately began training. This went down a mere 4 days before the event however, and left me precious little time to expand my stomach, which I had been trying my hardest to shrink for the last 4 months. So each day I tried as hard as a could to drink a gallon of water in the shortest time possible, and one night even prepared myself a practice burrito. Shortly before the event I even hit the gym to work up an appetite. Anyway, I got there, and with my support group in place, I tore into the burrito. Here's my favorite action shot:

I am just ruining that burrito's existence. The switch to chicken and black beans was a very wise choice, as the innards of the burrito went down in a delicious heartbeat. 10 minutes in, all I had left were the tortillas and a handful of burrito guts. My sponsors were excited, the optimism pouring out like wine at a Greek orgy. However, it was shortly thereafter that I ran into trouble. The tortillas, which I so enjoy, were very chewy. A pro eater could power through and swallow each bite without chewing, but at that point I couldn't swallow large chunks of anything without gagging, and "reversal" was never an option. And by reversal I mean puking, if you didn't make that connection. To cut down on the chewing I begin tearing the tortillas into smaller strips...but by the 20 minute mark everything was expanding in my stomach, which I hadn't prepped quite enough for the event. As much as it pained me to admit it, by the 25 minute mark...I was full.

As you can see I was more disappointed than full. Although that quickly changed as the food continued to expand in my stomach, which is the worst part of the challenge. With only three strips of tortilla and a handful of burrito guts remaining, I left defeated once again. However, whereas last year I left shaking my head and calling the burrito impossible to ingest in 30 minutes, this year I left with optimism. With some minor tweaks in strategy and heavier training next year, I truly believe I will slay the beast in 2015 and take home those sweet, sweet burrito Zubaz. So until next year, burrito...well played.

The Nasty Cast Episode 6 Part 2

Episode 6 is another marathon pod that needed to be broken into two parts.  On this week's addition Nate and Joe give you the latest in Fantasy Baseball News, toss out prospects to target, continue their streaming bet, and give out some new dad advice to Jesse.  The Fantasy Baseball portion is topped off by a rage filled rant by Joe.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+6+part+2.mp3

The Nasty Cast Episode 6 Part 1

Episode 6 is another marathon pod that needed to be broken into two parts.  On this week's addition Nate and Joe give you the latest in Fantasy Baseball News, toss out prospects to target, continue their streaming bet, and give out some new dad advice to Jesse.  The Fantasy Baseball portion is topped off by a rage filled rant by Joe.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+6+part+1.mp3

Undervalued Minor League Prospects

By Nathan Dokken

Prospecting is fun, there's no other way to put it. It's a large part of why I'm a fan of dynasty leagues. There's no better feeling than being the guy who gets a hot lead on an unheard of prospect who develops into the next big thing. While a lot of people just draft these guys and hold onto them in hopes that they will blossom into MLB stars, there are some strategies to deploy in your dynasty leagues to try and get the upper hand with your farm system. Buying low or selling high (or even buying high or selling low based on name value) on some guys based on the numbers they put up can be a useful strategy to try and pull one over on another owner in your league. A lot of owners, even in deep dynasty leagues where most of the following players will be relevant, don't actually know a lot about the prospects' skills and rely mainly on the surface stats available to be found lying around the interwebs. Here are some undervalued guys to target in early 2014 for your dynasty squad.

Sean Manaea, LHP, KC Royals – 22 year old Manaea was a beast in the Cape Cod League before being drafted 34^th overall by the Royals in 2013. The 6'5” lefty was throwing 96 MPH before succumbing to a hip injury that knocked him from one of the top overall projected picks in the draft to the supplemental round, where it looks like KC got a steal. While his velocity isn't back up to 96 (at least not yet) he's reportedly throwing 90-92 and touching 94 while still building up his endurance and arm strength. His exceptional command and deception should help his floor even if he doesn't get his velocity back up to 96. Based on his solid floor and high ceiling, the general perception at the moment hasn't caught up to his value. If you can find an owner who doesn't know what he's got on his hands, or if Manaea is a free agent for that matter, snatch him up on the cheap. This is a guy who got little to no love on top 100 prospect lists in 2014 but could be a top 25 prospect next spring with a shot to make the Royals rotation in 2015.

Daniel Vogelbach, 1B/DH, Chi Cubs – Always a prospect criticized for his lack a physique, Vogelbach dropped 30 pounds this offseason to silence his critics and help his chances at being a big league first baseman, not just relegated to DH duties. The kid has and will hit and there's little doubt about that, and in fantasy that's all we care about. A big part of why he hasn't received any love in the prospect universe is indeed because of his real life shortcomings (read: defense), because he is overshadowed by the massive prospects ahead of him in the Cubs system, and he is also blocked at the big league level by fellow lefty slugger Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs do have Rizzo locked up for several years, which means a trade to another club is very likely in Vogelbach's future. Meanwhile he has been developing into a very nice power hitting prospect in the minors, and has consistently produced double-digit walk rates throughout his career. He has a good chance to develop into a high OBP, 25 home run per year slugger hitting in the middle of the order. At the tender age of 21 he is starting the year at High-A and it would be wise to pounce ASAP if you're looking to upgrade your farm system. If you dawdle too long, when he inevitably gets traded is when everyone else in your league will take notice and his stock will skyrocket.

Kyle Zimmer, RHP, KC Royals – Here we find our first highly ranked prospect. In no way can I call him a sleeper as he was a top 30 prospect on just about every prospect list this spring. However, this is a case where you can buy high, so to speak. Lots of owners will look at the 4.82 ERA he put up in High-A over 89.2 innings last year and assume mediocrity despite the 11.34 K/9. He also is injured to start 2014 and as of this writing has yet to throw a pitch in the minors. The reality is that Zimmer has the potential to be a top of the rotation arm with a 4 pitch arsenal and at least average control. So I say to you, fantasy baseballer, start up a conversation with the Zimmer owner in your league. The owner may have trepidations based on the previous years' ERA, or lack the patience to wade through his current injury. Assuming Zimmer comes back healthy (which is of course never a safe assumption with pitchers), he should see AAA this summer, and quite possibly a second half call up to the show.

Arismendy Alcantara, 2B/SS, Chi Cubs – Here we have the second Cubs prospect that isn't getting the love he deserves. Setting aside the fact that you should own him based purely on his awesome name, Alcantara has sneaky good value for fantasy players. In AA last year Alcantara smashed 55 extra base hits, including 15 home runs, to go along with 31 steals and a .271/.352/.451 slash line. He has surprising pop for being only 5'10”, but he's unlikely to eclipse 20 home runs in a season. That said, a 15/30 middle infielder has tons of value even in points leagues. I say middle infielder because his future position is likely to be determined by some of the other players ahead of him in the Cubs pecking order, i.e. Starlin Castro, Javier Baez and even current second baseman Emilio Bonifacio. Assuming Castro comes back from the dead in 2014 to be anything like what he once was, that will likely push Baez to third (where Kris Bryant would then be pushed to the outfield) or also possibly second base. It's an embarrassment of riches for the Cubs really, but I see Bonifacio getting pushed out sooner rather than later, and Alcantara taking over second base duties in the waning months of 2014 or early 2015 with Baez coming up to play third and Bryant pushed to the outfield. Alcantara is a good enough defender to play anywhere in the infield, so while I don't see the Cubs calling him up to be a utility player, he may be multi-position eligible for parts of his career due to his versatility. As a guy that didn't rank highly on any prospect lists coming into the year, he will be a useful middle infielder for fantasy players for many years to come, possibly hitting second in a lineup ahead of studs like Baez, Bryant and Rizzo. Runs, runs, runs!

Ryan McMahon, 3B, Col Rockies – This is just a case of being the first guy to click the add button. If somebody owns McMahon already they are unlikely to give him up (although you should still try), as this kid is very exciting. Only 19 years old, McMahon was drafted 42^nd overall by the Rockies in 2013 as a high upside power hitter who didn't focus solely on baseball until his senior year of high school (he was also a quarterback prospect). There's only 325 PA's to go on statistically this far into his career, but he's done nothing but rake since being drafted, hitting 19 home runs with double-digit walk rates and .300+ averages both in rookie ball and Low-A, where he certainly won't spend much time if he continues to his at this pace. There's been nothing so far to say he can't stick at third defensively, and his 6'2” frame allows for even more future power projection to drool over. His splits against left-handed pitching are terrible (seriously, a .130 BA vs lefties in 2014) but there's oodles of time for him to work on that part of his game, and there are plenty of major league regulars that sport some bad splits but still play every day. I'm not calling him a platoon bat yet. Also, you have to take some of the production with a grain of salt because the Rockies minor league affiliates play in extreme hitters parks, but so is Coors Field, so I say whatever. He's a few years away from the bigs, but if you have the room to stash him in your deep dynasty league, do it now.

The Streaming Challenge, Week 5

Week 4 saw the boys falling in love with the Marlins pitching staff, and with good results. Let's see what happened:

Team Joe: Tom Koehler - 47.33, Henderson Alvarez - 26 = 73.33
Team Nate: Zach McAllister - 57, Nathan Eovaldi - 39 = 96

Heading into Week 4 Joe led the challenge 2-1, but as you can see Nate has come back from an 0-2 deficit to tie The Joe at 2-2. So here we are now at the deciding week in the best of 5 challenge, and it's a truly hideous week for streaming pitchers, which is perfect since it is a truly hideous fate that belies the loser of the challenge, a power packed punch to the gut. So with the challenge on the line, you might say it's...GUT CHECK TIME!!!

Team Joe: Chris Young (@NYY, @ Hou), Dallas Keuchel (Sea)
Team Nate: Franklin Morales (@Ari, NYM), John Danks (@Cle)

Like I said, a hideous week for streaming. Most two start options are solid pitchers and well owned, Young and Morales definitely do not qualify as either. Keuchel has been really good so far this year, but I still wouldn't be interested in any of these guys in anything less than a 15 team league. Who will slop out and emerge victorious in the first ever streaming challenge?! Time will tell...

And on that ominous note, happy streaming!

NastyCast Episode 5 Part 2

After a 2 week hiatus the NastyCast Pod is back.  This episode is so good it had to be broken into two parts.  We have to apologize for the delay in the release of this episode. The official recording date was April 16th.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+5+Part+2.mp3

NastyCast Episode 5 Part 1

After a 2 week hiatus the NastyCast Pod is back.  This episode is so good it had to be broken into two parts.  We have to apologize for the delay in the release of this episode. The official recording date was April 16th.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+5+Part+1.mp3

Streaming Challenge, Week 4

Week 3 of the Streaming Challenge is in the books, and Nate is on the board with a victory!! Let's take a look at the beautiful results (the author of these posts is clearly unbiased, eh?):

Team Joe: Jake Odorizzi - 14, Tanner Roark - 28.33 = 42.33
Team Nate: Phil Hughes - 54, Jonathan Niese - 34 = 88

So Nate fully doubled up the The Joe this week, thanks in large part to a rainout of a Rays game eliminating Odorizzi's second start. But hey, let's not take away from the fact that Phil Hughes was actually a serviceable option in a 2 start week for the lowly Twinkies. So with that, Joe still leads the challenge 2-1, but let us not dwell in the past! Onward to Week 4!

Due to Easter and a packed schedule, Nate shirked his first pick and Joe went ahead and chose both of his pitchers first. I will remind you all that these streaming options are only the available players in our shared 10 team head to head points league, Baseball for Dummies, where most pitchers that are worth anything are already owned, so a lot of these pitchers are deep league options as well.

Team Joe: Tom Koehler (@Atl, @NYM), Henderson Alvarez (@NYM),
Team Nate: Zach McAllister (KC, @SF), Nathan Eovaldi (@Atl)

3/4 of the pitchers are Marlins? Coincidence? Or have we found a discounted group of nice pitching options enjoying the Miami sun? This week will prove telling as they have some nice matchups against the Braves and Mets. The Braves have a potentially powerful offense, but they are also a bunch that strike out a heck of a lot. The Mets are...well, the Mets, and aren't a bad option to stream against, sitting at 15th in the Majors with 77 runs scored.

Show the Marlins a little love this week, and as always, happy streaming!

Lottery Ticket Starting Pitchers

Written by Joe Osadchy

If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for a while and listen to draft strategies a common theme is
“starting pitching is so deep, you can wait on pitching.” Last year that strategy could have paid off quite nicely if you drafted Matt Harvey in the mid rounds and rode him to a top ten finish, or picked up Jose Fernandez off the waiver wire and got the 6th best pitcher in fantasy. Due to those young studs blowing up, pitchers like Gerrit Cole, Danny Salazar and Sonny Gray shot up the draft boards with people hoping to draft the next great young pitcher. But there were older guys who were even more off the radar the first two weeks of last season who ended the year as top 25 starters. Hisashi Iwakuma was a late rounder in mixed leagues who ended up top ten, and Fransico Liriano was left for dead after flaming out with the Twins and came out of nowhere to finish 19th among starters. If you bought in on these guys early and picked them up or traded for them you very well may have won your league because of it. If you missed out on the young upside pitchers like Cole and Gray on you can still find some undervalued pitchers out there that can bail out your staff if you waited a little too long on draft day. So who can come out of nowhere to be the Liriano or Iwakuma of 2014? Here’s 5 guys who were drafted outside of the top 50 starting pitchers who I think have a shot to finish top 20.

1. Ervin Santana – 52nd pitcher drafted, 203rd overall

Santana got the free agent discount during most drafts, but ended up landing in a potentially better
spot than last year now that he’s in Atlanta. It’s hard to forget how terrible Santana was during some
of his years in Anaheim, he finished with an ERA over 5 in 2007, 2009 and 2012. But because he burned so many people in the past you might have a chance to get him cheap. His strikeout numbers have remained consistent the past few years with a K/9 hovering around 7, so if he is able to keep the homers down I think another year like last year (3.24 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) seems like a safe bet, and he has the upside to be even better than he was last year in KC when he finished 33rd among starters.

2. Scott Kazmir – 70th pitcher drafted, 264th overall

Kazmir is another guy who was so far off the fantasy radar for so long that it might be taking people a
while to buy in. In 2011 and 2012 he threw a grand total of 1.2 innings so it’s not hard to understand
why people forgot about him. But Kazmir had 162 k’s in 152 innings last year, and a 3.4 strikeout to
walk ratio. If he keeps his velocity up and stays healthy he should be even better in Oakland with a solid defense behind him and a better home ballpark. He’s 79% owned in Yahoo leagues, and as long as he stays healthy I think he should be owned in virtually all leagues.

3. Brandon Morrow – 110th pitcher drafted, 385th overall

Morrow was throwing 98 with an 89 mph slider against the Astros, everyone knows the risk but the
reward could be top 20. It’s early, but his fastball velocity is up to 94.5 from 93.5 from last year and his sinker is up 2.5 mph as well. If he stays healthy and throws this hard…. I’ve been in love with Brandon Morrow ever since he struck out 17 in a one-hitter back in 2010 against the Rays. Will I ever get over how good he looked in that one start and realize that he’s been terrible ever since? Apparently not yet.

4. Trevor Bauer – 146th pitcher drafted, 500 overall

Bauer had as much prospect hype as anyone back in 2012, he was ranked as the #22 prospect by Keith Law and generally regarded as a can’t miss guy. Except he missed. Big time. He walked everyone, didn’t listen to the coaches, got traded, and was terrible in the bigs in 2013, so I guess I understand why he is pretty much unowned in redraft leagues. But he looked great in a spot start last week, throwing 96 with his usual great breaking stuff. If you’ve got the bench space he’s not a bad stash, and he’s definitely worth picking up if and when he gets called up again.

5. Edinson Volquez – drafted outside the top 150 pitchers

Last year no one would have thought it was possible for Liriano to finish at 19, so if the Pirates can
work their magic again you could have a bargain. Volquez was once considered to be as good a pitcher as Johnny Cueto, then he lost his command and sucked for several years. This pick is more about the Pirates pitching coaches than about Volquez, but he does have talent and crazier things have happened. Volquez is currently owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues, so he’s as cheap as it gets.

Now these guys might not be the most likely pitchers drafted outside the top 50 to make the leap, I left off guys like Yordano Ventura and Michael Pineda because I think they are owned in all leagues and no one is trading them for cheap. I was looking for guys who have potential, and are under the radar either because they are older and unexciting, or because their prospect luster has worn off.

Streaming Challenge, Week 3

Well week 2 is in the books, and stupid faced Joe has pulled out to a 2-0 lead in the streaming war. The results are as follows:

Team Nate: Charlie Morton - 49 points, Tanner Roark - 7.67 = 56.67
Team Joe: Mark Buehrle - 70.33, Tyler Skaggs - 25 = 95.33

So Joe nearly doubled my score. If I lose the challenge again this week, it's already decided that I will end up with the punch to the gut, rather than delivering it. It is a best of 5 challenge for those who have short memory spans, or are too lazy to scroll slightly down the blog. Moving right along to week 3! Joe got the first pick this week, but these guys are all pretty ugly:

Team Joe: Jake Odorizzi (@Bal, NYY), Tanner Roark (@Mia)
Team Nate: Phil Hughes (Tor, @KC), Jonathan Neise (Atl)

Like Joe said via text message: Phil Hughes? What could go wrong?!

Happy streaming, folks!

Streaming Challenge, Week 2

In the second edition of the eternal struggle that is Joe vs Nate, the dudes have reprised their challenge from Week 1, which is as follows in case you weren't paying attention on Episode 3 of the NastyCast: For 5 weeks, the boys will each select 2 pitchers that are widely available in leagues to be streamed. The available pitchers are chosen from the Baseball for Dummies league, a 10-team head to head points league that everyone on the NastyCast plays in. The one with the most total points between their two pitchers is declared the winner. **A new rule for the week is that each man can only select one two-start pitcher.** This week the starters are as follows:

Nate: Charlie Morton (@ChC, @Mil), Tanner Roark (Mia)
Joe: Mark Buehrle (Hou, @Bal), Tyler Skaggs (NYM)

For reference, the scoring settings for pitching in this league are as follows:

W: 10
L: -3
IP: 1
CG: 5
SO: 10
SV: 15
Out: 1
H: -1
ER: -1
BB: -1
IBB: -1
K: 2
GIDP: 2
HLD: 12
QS: 5

NastyCast Fantasy Baseball Episode 4

It's been Death to Closers and the Season is as fresh as your favorite fruit, the boys break down the injury news and discuss who's the latest pickups.  Nate talks about his Tower of Power draft and how bad his team sucks, but gives some great excuses to as why.  Topped off with another week of March Madness with breaking down our favorite deserts...finalized with some F bombs from the god of all fantasy sports!!!

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+4.mp3

The NastyCast Podcast - Episode 3

On this edition of the Nastycast, we'll analyze the weeks news, talk about rebuilding a dynasty team, predict the future with our annual awards winners and playoff predictions, target some pitchers to stream in week one, and reprise our love for March Madness in our Dinner Madness Tournament.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+3.mp3

Dynasty Strategy: The Myth of the Rebuild

by Nathan Dokken

You don't need to blow up your team. No really, you don't. Don't go all Astros on your baseball league, because this is fantasy, not reality. You don't need to worry about how to price your burgers, if your seats are going to sell in September, when to bring up your prospects or who's going to sing the national anthem in three weeks. No matter how we try to mirror the real game of baseball, there's going to be a stark difference between what controls the outcomes of your fantasy squad and what factors into the Braves record finishing over .500. No matter how far your team seems to be from contention, you need to build your team for the very near future – not five years down the road.

Whether you've drafted your own team or taken over an abandoned one, the scenario here is the same: your team stinks. The exact strategy is going to vary wildly depending on your league size and depth, as well as the severity of your teams' TSP (Team Suck Percentage, a Dokkenmetric). In head to head leagues you should be especially optimistic considering the flukiness of some outcomes. As far as I'm concerned, any team can win any week in head to head points formats, whether points or categories. Roto leagues may take a little longer to bring yourself into contention, but again, there's no reason to consider blowing up your team for a run at dominance in five years. I'll tell you why.

First, who knows how long your league will exist. This may sound trite, but it is indeed one of the main factors to take into consideration. Is this a group of personal friends, or a bunch of strangers that happened upon the same public league? Is this a money league? Has there been a high rate of owner turnover? There are many factors to consider, and if you have questions as to the longevity of the league, you will want to build for the near future even more.

Secondly, anything can happen in a given year. Last year I could have asked you before the season whether you thought Ryan Braun had a better shot to win NL MVP or to miss most of the season due to injury and suspension. What would you have said? Especially with pitchers, you really don't know when an injury is going to occur, when a pitcher will get historically lucky or unlucky, when a surprise prospect will be plucked from A-ball and win Rookie of the Year or when your crummy second baseman decides to steal 20 more bases than he ever has before, for no apparent reason. Injuries, fluke seasons and career high or low seasons can happen at any time for any player, and cumulatively they can either cripple a strong team in your league, or bring a team from the cellar suddenly bursting into a spot in the money.

To enforce this point by example, in a 20-team league I play in has little parity. Horrendously little parity, in fact. It's a head to head points league, and the team that had won the title the previous year is supremely stacked. We're talking first and second round talent at just about every position. Then there are teams with scrubs up and down the roster. This is pretty normal in a dynasty league that has been around for a long time and gone through its fair share of owners, good and bad. Anyway, the team that won the title in 2012 still scored the second most points in the league in 2013, and with 8 of 20 teams making the playoffs, he missed the playoffs entirely. Had he not lost Ryan Braun and Carlos Gonzalez in the second half, there's a strong chance he would have made the playoffs and quite possibly won the league a second year running. Conversely, a team who finished third from last in the league in 2012 made some smart trades and wound up losing in the championship round in '13. As much as trading and roster management is a skill, a certain amount of the outcomes in our leagues is just plain luck.

So how, in a vacuum, does one approach a rebuild? For starters, grab a tasty beverage and plunge into the bowels of your league. Scour your waiver wire or free agent pool for upside players. Look for guys that are in preseason position battles or are an injury away from inheriting a key role, such as setup men that could turn into closers should anything happen to their teams' closer. Who could win the final rotation spot for an MLB team? Is there a prospect who could be called up at some point in the year? If you have a spot, cut a scrub and pick him up. If a rookie gets called up and gets off to a blistering start, chances are you can find someone to trade said rookie to and get a substantial return. Whether it be a legitimate performance from the rookie or if he's clearly performing over his head, someone in your league wants this hot new bat and will overpay to get him.

Which leads us to potentially the most important part of rebuilding your squad: trading. Get to know your league mates' rosters, their preferences, the direction they are trying to take their teams. Check into the league trade block frequently and send trade offers with even more frequency. Now, the art of trading is a subject worthy of an entire blog, so I won't get too deep into it here. What you really want to do is find a market inefficiency in your league. Follow that up with a flurry of trade offers, as appropriate for each team. Allow me to digress.

The assumption for this blog is that your league is beyond year one, as hopefully you aren't already rebuilding in the first year of your league. After a few years, there will be three tiers of teams in your league: contenders, rebuilders, and middling teams treading water. If you are a contender, there is no need to rebuild. Stop reading now and go enjoy some trail mix or something. However, if you have a rebuilding or middling team, this is where you can really gain some ground in a hurry.

Everyone wants to acquire young talent to build around. So give the people what they want, and look to get strong returns for your young studs (assuming you have any). Target rebuilding teams and gladly take any veteran studs off their hands in exchange for some youth. Also target some of the top teams who may have depth and can afford to trade you players who could be starting on your squad. While you may not want to get rid of superstars like Xander Bogaerts or Addison Russell, if you can trade Prospect X for Currently Producing Star A, B and C, it doesn't take many of those trades before you are in playoff contention in any league. While these young stars are likely to produce strong numbers in their prime, they may be mediocre for several years before blossoming into top round picks – not to mention the less elite prospects and young players that never pan out at all.

If your team is super awful and absolutely no one wants to trade for anyone on your team, or maybe your league just isn't big on trading (which is especially terrible), that will sure throw a wrench into things. Amass as many top draft picks as you can and when people fall in love with the ceiling of the prospects on your roster you should be able to flip them for major league talent, once again shortening the timeframe of your rebuild.

If you really want to take the slow route, hoarding top prospects and young talent and waiting for them to hit their primes and run at the title, power to you. I have nothing against that strategy, but I most certainly lack the patience for it. I want to win, and win now. Hopefully these strategies can help you do the same.

NastyCast Episode 2

Nate & Joe discuss their points league drafts, Introduce "that's a clown question, bro," Break down the greatest breakfast foods, and interview 2 very old best friends Herber Mendelbaum and Harry Carey.

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+2-mp3.mp3

2014 Fantasy Baseball Busts

2014 Fantasy Baseball Busts

by Nathan Dokken

Hey, I like busts as much as the next guy! Er wait...wrong sort of bust. Moving right along, here's 5 hitters and 5 pitchers I think will sink your team this year, and underperform given their average draft position (ADP).

The Hitters

1. Chris Davis, 1B, Bal Orioles – Davis won people their leagues last year, as a mid-to-late round pick he absolutely exploded, launching 53 homers with 138 RBI and slashing .286/.370/.634. His success is attributed to his more patient approach at the plate, as he also upped his BB% from 6.6% in 2012 to 10.7% in 2013. So what's not to love? First of all, with all the improvements he made in his game last year, he still struck out a disgusting 29% of the time. Second, after being otherwordly in the first half, he struggled in the second half, batting only .245 with 89 strikeouts in 280 PA's. With strikeout rates that high, his BA is very likely to regress to around the .260-.270 range, more in line with his career norm. He also posted a ridiculously unsustainable 29.6% home run/fly ball rate, which will likely regress to a more normal (for him – still above league average) 20-25%. Finally, there's his price tag: as the 7^th overall player drafted, there's no where to go but down. Don't let “Crush” crush your chances at a title this year. First base is very deep, and with names like Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Abreu offering similar power numbers for a much lower price tag, I'd be looking elsewhere in the first round. Projection: 650 PA's, 38 HR, 115 RBI, .265AVG
2. Matt Kemp, OF, LA Dodgers – After missing enormous chunks of the last few seasons with myriad injuries, I'm not touching Kemp with a 10 foot kielbasa this year. I have my doubts he will be running as frequently recovering from hamstring and ankle injuries, and shoulder injuries have been known to sap power. If he comes back this year and has some success I'll be glad, since he was such a great player before the injuries. But with a hefty ADP of 49, I'll gladly pass on him for safer options like Starling Marte (ADP 52), Wil Myers (ADP 64) or Jason Heyward (ADP 72). Projection: 450 PA's, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 10 SB, .275 AVG
3. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Bos Red Sox – Middlebrooks has power out the wazoo. That's about the only nice thing I have to say about him. He's got a powerful wazoo. Unfortunately he has contact issues (a below average 74.5% contact rate) and posted nearly a 1:5 BB:K ratio and a .227 BA least year in 374 PA's, eventually getting demoted to AAA. He was actually better upon being recalled towards the end of the year, but I have strong doubts that his minor league stint fixed his contact and strikeout issues. With uber-OBP prospect Garin Cecchini waiting in AAA for an opportunity to make a difference in Boston, if Middlebrooks doesn't refine his wazoo, he could be demoted again. Fortunately, with a 184 ADP as the 20^th third baseman drafted, there's plenty of other safer, upside-oozing wazoos like Nolan Arenado (ADP 202) and Anthony Rendon (ADP 263) to wait on. Projection: 300 PA's, 13 HR, 42 RBI, .233 AVG
4. Michael Cuddyer, OF, Col Rockies – In between prune juice chugging sessions (to stay regular), the 35 year old Michael Cuddyer will try his best to replicate his impressive 2013 numbers. I have my doubts. Even though he will play half his games in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field, Cuddy had a ridiculous .382 BABIP last year, propelling his career-high (by 47 points!) .331 BA. He can still flash a little power (although he probably farts when he swings, hard to control your bowels at that elderly age), but his lower average and seriously old age will sap it into mediocrity. Maybe if he finds the fountain of youth (which spritzes Milk of Magnesia, FYI) he can still slap 16-18 homers with his cane. Otherwise, he's going to cripple your team with your 104^th ADP (33^rd OF). There's so many other outfielders with upside in this area, just avoid this old bag at all costs. Projection: 520 PA's, 11 HR, 60 RBI, .260 AVG
5. Josh Hamilton, OF, LA Angels – Last year, Josh Hamilton disappointed in a huge way. I'm banking on a repeat. Heading into his age 33 season, just about every arrow is pointing down for him. Don't ask me where these arrows are, just go with it. At this point you're probably skimming over these words while paying more attention to SportsCenter. Pay attention! Hamilton's batted ball distance fell substantially last year, and now playing in the pitchers park in Anaheim rather than Texas where he hit 43 home runs only 2 years ago, that's really not a good thing. Couple that with a 25% K rate, a consistent injury risk (he's actually a risk to miss opening day), a mediocre BA, and a miserable 70% contact rate, and you're looking at a guy that could be on the outs of fantasy relevance. I'd be selling on his name value if I still could in dynasty leagues, and avoiding him in redraft leagues. As the 24^th OF drafted and with an ADP of 71, I'd be taking Heyward instead, who is the next player being drafted on average. But of course he's allegedly chewing tobacco again, so that means he's going to his 40 home runs again...right? Projection: 600 PA's, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .255 AVG

The Pitchers

1. A.J. Burnett, RHP, Phi Phillies – I always dug Burnett growing up because of his sweet necklace. Unfortunately, for as great a pitcher as Burnett was last year in Pittsburgh, he's another year older (37) and finds himself in Philadelphia, defensively a downgrade from the progressive shifts the Pirates deploy. Citizens Bank Park in Philly is also a much friendlier ballpark for offense than he had at PNC Park in 2013. Given these factors, I'd expect his HR/9 to rise from his impressive 0.52 in '13 to more like where he was at with the Yankees when it varied from 1.09 to 1.47 from '09-'11. Therefore, even if he can limit his walks as he did as a Pirate, I'd expect an inflation of his ERA in 2014. It's also worth mentioning that even though wins are fluky, they are part of our fake game, and as bad as the Phillies are expected to be this year, wins are going to be few and far between even if he does hold up for 200 innings. As SP48 with an ADP of 183 it shouldn't be hard to avoid him, and even at a discount from that draft spot I'm not interested. Projection: 175 IP, 162 K, 4.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2. Jered Weaver, RHP, LA Angles – As if it weren't hard enough to like a guy whose name, Jered, is spelled with two “e”'s, he's been steadily declining in almost every underlying metric for the past 2 years. Once a workhorse, posting 200+ inning seasons from '09-'11, Weaver dropped to 188.2 in '12, and due to an elbow injury threw only 154.1 last year. His K/9 has also dipped well below league average, his fastball velocity has declined to a terrifying 86 MPH, and his ground ball rate dropped as his line drive rate climbed. The only thing barring a potential implosion is his excellent control, which has remained steady despite the erosion of his other skills. With an ADP of 107, SP26, he's being drafted off name value with hopes of a bounce back. Unless he has arm replacement surgery I can't see that happening. On a side note, I'm third in line for arm replacement surgery myself, so my chances of dominating the major leagues are looking up! Projection: 180 IP, 135 K, 4.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
3. CC Sabathia, LHP, NY Yankees – For all the players that report to camp “in the best shape of their lives”, in the case of CC Sabathia, that may actually be true for the 2014 season. Sabathia lost around 40 pounds this offseason, which I would normally applaud. The downside of this is that he did this last year as well, and his diminished size lead, at least in part, to his diminished velocity. So far this spring training his fastball velocity has been even worse, allegedly sitting around 86, maxing out at 89. Typically pitchers do work their velocity up gradually, but it is abnormal to be down 5 MPH, and has me concerned. He has added a splitter to his arsenal for 2014 to help offset his lost velocity, but this seems to be a last-ditch effort to save his career. He's been well over 200 IP for almost his entire career, including many postseason starts. These innings have finally caught up to the 33 year old, and I fear his days of sub-4 ERA's are over. Some are still optimistic on him, as the 45^th SP drafted (ADP 167). His only upside floats on the hopes of his new splitter keeping hitters off-balance enough to keep the ball in the park, but I see far more downside than upside with CC. Projection: 192 IP, 160 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
4. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Bal Orioles – Last year was a dandy for Ubaldo, who struck out 9.56 per 9 innings and enjoyed the lowest ERA of his career, 3.30. I can't say I foresee a repeat however, as just two years ago he threw up a hideous 4.84 BB% and a 5.40 ERA, losing 17 games for the Indians. While he's found a new home in Baltimore, it's an offensively friendly ballpark, and his pitching mechanics are so inconsistent you never know what kind of start you're going to get. He's a consistently healthy pitcher, easily capable of making 32 starts for your squad, but the fact that he may barely eclipse 180 innings in those 32 starts may keep him from qualifying from many a win. His WHIP will kill you regardless of his strikeouts, and unless he harnesses his control there is little upside from his SP59 draft slot. He's an endgamer in almost any format, so I'd be saving myself the headache and going with a younger, higher upside guy like a Tillman, Kluber or Parker. Projection: 182 IP, 170 K, 4.76 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
5. Michael Wacha, RHP, StL Cardinals – There, now you can't say I'm just picking on old guys. Wacha is a thrilling young righty, who came up last year and destroyed as a 22 year old, helping the Cards to the World Series. He's a guy you've got to love in dynasty leagues, but he's being overdrafted in single season leagues. As great as his numbers were last year, he only threw 64.2 regular season innings. He's also only a two-pitch starter, throwing either his fastball or changeup 92% of the time. As good as those pitches are, he will need to develop his breaking ball to keep hitters off balance for a full season starting. The Cardinals may also opt to limit his innings per start in his first full season of MLB action to keep him healthy for a playoff run. This limits his chances for wins and lowers his value in points leagues where you get points for innings pitched. He's the 25^th SP drafted (ADP 106), and there are a lot more proven pitchers in that area that will give you around 200 innings, which is certainly a prerequisite for SP1/SP2's on my fantasy roster. Projection: 175 IP, 175 K, 3.26 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

The NastyCast Fantasy Baseball Podcast - Episode 1

Nate & Joe discuss their Die Nasty Dynasty Baseball League's draft.  Special segment:  Pronounce that Prospect!

Intro & Outro music provided by Celestria - The Architect

http://media.blubrry.com/nastycast/s3.amazonaws.com/NastyCast/thenastycast-episode+1-mp3.mp3

2014 Sleepers

2014 Sleepers

by Nathan Dokken

This year I've decided to go ahead and do you all a favor and write up some sweet sleepers for your brain. All I ask is to keep in mind your individual league format and keep that in line with expectations. These 10 “sleepers” are guys I feel will outperform their draft slots and turn a profit for your fantasy squad. Now, on with the fantasy goodness!

The Hitters

1. Oswaldo Arcia, OF, MN Twins – Oswaldo Arcia is a power hitting lefty for your Minnesota Twins. Last year in his first taste of the majors as a 22 year old he struggled, striking out in 31% of his plate appearances and leading to a mediocre .251 batting average. He struggled mightily against breaking pitches, a problem that can only be alleviated with experience. Well he should get plenty of experience this year as a full-time outfielder, and if he can improve his pitch recognition along the way, that batting average should improve. He hit over .300 pretty consistently throughout the minors and eventually his BA should settle around the .280-.290 mark. This real upside here is the power – last year as a rookie, he slugged .430 with a .179 ISO over his 378 PA's, not bad numbers for a 22 year old in (predominantly) a pitchers park. The counting stats may not be great since the Twins lineup is rather limp, but with an ADP of 301 (79^th OF off the board), look to nab him as your 5^th outfielder with some nice upside on draft day. 2014 Projection: 600 PA's, 23 HR, 65 RBI, .270 AVG
2. Adam Eaton, OF, ChiSox – Last year at this time, Eaton was all the rage. Garnering Rookie of the Year predictions as a Diamondback, he was going to rock everyone's world. Well as it turned out he missed half the year with injury, hit only .252 in 277 PA's and got traded to the White Sox. Well folks, lets turn that misfortune into profit. While it is a bit disconcerting that Eaton opted for rehab rather than surgery to fix his bum UCL, he's allegedly back to full health and has a green light on the basebaths in 2014, leading off for the Sox. With a delicious 88% contact rate in his 380 Major League PA's, I see that BA climbing steeply with some continued improvement in his line drive rate. Combine that with a strong track record of plate discipline (he slashed .381/.456/.539 in 562 PA's in AAA in 2012) and he's oozing upside like caramel from a squished Milky Way. His walks will make him plenty relevant in points and OBP leagues, and 30+ steals will contribute nicely to your roto leagues as well. Land him as your 5^th OF in a 12 team league – with an ADP of 218 and the 60^th OF off the board, there's no need to reach. Projection: 700 PA's, 85 R, 5 HR, 35 SB, .290 AVG
3. Brad Miller, 2B/SS, Sea Mariners – Miller got the call last year after raking in AA and AAA, and was pretty solid in his 335 PA's in the Majors, slashing .265/.318/./418. I expect marked improvement from the “generic white boy named” Miller in nearly every category. In his 999 minor league PA's, he posted double digit walk rates in all but his first 59 PA's in low A ball. For a guy who's only played pro ball exclusively for a few years, he has shown the skills to adjust quickly to more advanced pitching and I expect him to raise his 7.2% BB% from 2013. Assuming the M's hit him 1 or 2 in the order in front of Cano, that should lead him into plenty of run scoring opportunities. He's never been a beast on the basepaths, but his solid contact % and low BABIP from a year ago (.294 was actually 39 points below any previous season for him) should allow for a higher BA, OBP, and a few more homers. As the 223^rd player taken in drafts (20^th SS/2B drafted) I'd gladly take him over the likes of Jed Lowrie, Howie Kendrick, and Alex Guerrero, all of whom are going 1-3 rounds higher. Projection: 650 PA's, 16 HR, 85 R, 10 SB, .280 AVG
4. Jason Heyward, OF, Atl Braves - “Ow, my friggin appendix!!” “Ow, my friggin jaw!!” “Damn, I'm sick of eating through a straw!!” “Damn, this facemask is whack!!” Who am I? Well I already wrote his name ya dumbtard, it's Jason Heyward. Dude had a rough go of it last year, but they were fluke injuries. Even through them he managed to net 440 PA's, although they were still disappointing given peoples expectations after going 27/21 in 2012. He also battled through shoulder soreness and a hamstring strain last year, the latter of which may account for his paltry 2 steals. His batting eye was better than ever though as he posted a 10.9% walk rate and cut his K% from 23.3% in 2012 to a much nicer 16.6%. He hit leadoff down the stretch for the Braves and excelled, so there's no reason for the Braves to take him out of that role heading into 2014. If he can keep his OBP around .350, and I think he can, there should be ample runs to be scored atop that potent lineup. I'm not sure how much he will be running however, as the Braves as a whole weren't particularly aggressive on the basebaths, and 21 was a career high for him in 2012. All told, Heyward is being discounted for his fluky injury-riddled season last year, a mega case of recency bias rearing its ugly head. As the 72^nd overall player drafted and 26^th OF, Heyward is creeping up draft boards, but can still be taken as your OF2 with top 10-15 OF upside. Projection: 675 PA's, 100 R, 28 HR, 7 SB, .260 AVG
5. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, ChiSox – Now this is a hard one to justify. We have no real statistical evidence to back up Abreu will be good at all, as the Dominican stats can be fluky. This one is more of a gut call, a calculated risk based on potential upside and average draft position. Said ADP is currently 98 overall, 17^th 1B drafted. Everyone who's seen him play says he's the best player to ever come out of Cuba, some calling him the “Cuban Barry Bonds”. Clay Davenport, who translates Cuban stats to approximate MLB equivalencies, pretty much nailed Cespedes' production in the majors. His translation of what Abreu would have done from last year is a .298/.393/.576 slash line. Those are some very nice numbers. Some scouts question his bat speed, and voice concerns over a low BA due to inability to catch up to premium velocity (something that very few pitchers have in Cuba), but one thing that no one can question is his massive raw power. If he can indeed adjust to MLB pitching and post respectable K% and BA, his power will vault him much, much higher than his price tag will cost you. There are few players in baseball that have 40+ HR potential, none of which will be this cheap on draft day. Projection: 650 PA's, 35 HR, 90 RBI, .260 AVG

The Pitchers

1. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Mia Marlins – Whoa, whoa, easy there big guy. No need to hurl all those expletives my way. Yes, I know this is a sleeper column. YES, I know the Fern is already being drafted 38^th overall as the 8^th pitcher off the board. What I'm telling you is that's not high enough. Now, I can't blame you if you want to take the safe route and nab a more established pitcher like Scherzer of Cliff Lee. But let's quickly look at the Fern's numbers from 2013: 172.2 IP (28 starts), 12-6, 9.75 K/9, 3.02 BB/9, 2.19 ERA. Ace numbers, one of the best rookie seasons of all time...and he was a 20 year old that had never pitched above High-A. I'll freely admit I passed on him in every league last year thinking the Marlins are insane throwing a kid to the wolves like that, much to my regret. Needless to say I've come around on the kid and learned from my mistakes. One might think that over 172.2 innings, the kid must have worn down. Not the case, in fact...he got better. Since the Marlins were capping his innings per start, he began pitching more to contact to induce grounders and chew up more innings. Well, his innings shouldn't be as much of a concern this year, although Miami may still shut him down around 200 just to preserve their star pitcher for the future. Wins will still be hard to come by playing for the Marlins, but everything else you get from Fernandez is delicious Cuban gravy. His arsenal is the stuff of dreams, and those 200 innings will be as good as you get from guys outside of Kershaw and Darvish. If you bail on those guys and take Fernandez as a cheaper option in the 3rd-4^th round as your staff ace, you can still turn a profit on that selection while also having your first 2 picks fortify your hitting. Projection: 200 IP, 225 K, 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
2. Justin Masterson, RHP, Cle Indians – Now here's a guy I never thought I'd be writing about in a sleeper column. I've always had a distaste for him due to his high propensity for blow up starts. That propensity is still there, mind you, but it's the whole picture that's improved. Namely, his step forward he took against left-handed batters in 2013. In 2011 and 2012, his batting average against (BAA) lefties was .286 and .288. In '13, he dropped that to .245, while also dropping his BAA vs righties nearly 30 points. He also got much better as the season wore on – his final numbers (3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) aren't completely indicative of how good he was in the second half last year. His first half numbers: 135.1 IP, 3.72 ERA. Second half: 57.2 IP, 2.81 ERA. Granted the second half is a smaller sample size, but the point remains. Oh yeah, and he upped his K/9 by 2.15, reduced his walks and was about on par with his FIP and xFIP. Way down at SP50, 187^th off the board, I like his chances to crack the top 30 this year. Projection: 200 IP, 210 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
3. Clay Buchholz, RHP, BoSox – Buchholz was phenomenal in 2013. 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP. So why is he dropping all the way down to SP52, the 197^th player drafted? In a word, health. The annually injured righty managed only 108.1 innings before missing the rest of the season. So how did he not only up his K/9 by almost 2 and lower his ERA to the lowest of his career? Much of the praise has to go to the Red Sox pitching coach Juan Nieves, hired after the 2012 season, for ironing out Buchholz' mechanics and timing. While I can't project a sub-2 ERA again, a sub-3 ERA is conceivable. If he can stay healthy, and that's a massive if, his ceiling is immense. Projection: 165 IP, 150 K, 2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
4. Rex Brothers, LHP, Col Rockies – Upon the departure of the elderly Rafael Betancourt at the end of the 2013 season, everyone thought “Well, Rex has waited long enough, looks like he finally will get a shot at being the full time closer in Colorado.” And then the Rockies went out and said “Screw you all!” and signed 41-year old LaTroy Hawkins in the offseason. They inexplicably dropped $2.5 million on another relic to block Brothers, who filled in for Betancourt admirably when he was injured in '13. Although having a lefty closer isn't the norm, Brothers doesn't have terrible platoon splits. He also doesn't have great control (4.81 BB/9 in '13) but his 10+K/9 is enough to make up for a high walk rate as a reliever. Due to the fact that Hawkins more or less has the closer job to open the season, Brothers has dropped all the way to 233^rd overall, the 33^rd RP off the board, behind the likes of Neftali Feliz (not guaranteed the closer job, having his own problems), Tommy Hunter (apparently closing in Baltimore, unproven), and Jose Veras (hot garbage ratios, may not keep the job in Chicago). It's only a matter of time until Brothers overtakes Hawkins for the gig in Colorado, and in the meantime he should present you with a nice ERA and K's, although the WHIP may remain ugly if he can't harness his control better. Projection: 67 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 25 SV
5. Patrick Corbin, LHP, Ari Diamondbacks – Corbin came somewhat out of nowhere last year, winning a starting job out of spring training after beating out better known names like Trevor Bauer and Randall Delgado. He proceeded to impress beyond belief through the first half of the season, posting a 2.35 ERA in 130.1 innings. Unfortunately the second half turned ugly for the young lefty, as he put up a 5.19 ERA in 78 innings. His velocity declined, a strong indication that he was probably just tired. It's also a possibility batters figured out a pitch or two, perhaps his sequencing became predictable, or maybe he was tipping his pitches. Whatever the case, I expect an adjustment to be made on his part and a return to form will ensue, with the possibility of upside coming from his SP46, ADP 187 draft position. Projection: 215 IP, 187 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.14 WHIP (UPDATE: Corbin has unfortunately undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2014 season. I wish him well in his recovery.)