Prospecting is fun, there's no other way to put it. It's a large part
of why I'm a fan of dynasty leagues. There's no better feeling than
being the guy who gets a hot lead on an unheard of prospect who
develops into the next big thing. While a lot of people just draft
these guys and hold onto them in hopes that they will blossom into
MLB stars, there are some strategies to deploy in your dynasty
leagues to try and get the upper hand with your farm system. Buying
low or selling high (or even buying high or selling low based on name
value) on some guys based on the numbers they put up can be a useful
strategy to try and pull one over on another owner in your league. A
lot of owners, even in deep dynasty leagues where most of the
following players will be relevant, don't actually know a lot about
the prospects' skills and rely mainly on the surface stats available
to be found lying around the interwebs. Here are some undervalued
guys to target in early 2014 for your dynasty squad.
Sean Manaea,
LHP, KC Royals
– 22 year old Manaea was a beast in the Cape Cod League before
being drafted 34th
overall by the Royals in 2013. The 6'5” lefty was throwing 96 MPH
before succumbing to a hip injury that knocked him from one of the
top overall projected picks in the draft to the supplemental round,
where it looks like KC got a steal. While his velocity isn't back up
to 96 (at least not yet)
he's reportedly throwing 90-92 and touching 94 while still building
up his endurance and arm strength. His exceptional command and
deception should help his floor even if he doesn't get his velocity
back up to 96. Based on his solid floor and high ceiling, the general
perception at the moment hasn't caught up to his value. If you can
find an owner who doesn't know what he's got on his hands, or if
Manaea is a free agent for that matter, snatch him up on the cheap.
This is a guy who got little to no love on top 100 prospect lists in
2014 but could be a top 25 prospect next spring with a shot to make
the Royals rotation in 2015.
Daniel
Vogelbach, 1B/DH, Chi Cubs
– Always a prospect criticized for his lack a physique, Vogelbach
dropped 30 pounds this offseason to silence his critics and help his
chances at being a big league first baseman, not just relegated to DH
duties. The kid has and will hit and there's little doubt about that,
and in fantasy that's all we care about. A big part of why he hasn't
received any love in the prospect universe is indeed because of his
real life shortcomings (read: defense), because he is overshadowed by
the massive prospects ahead of him in the Cubs system, and he is also
blocked at the big league level by fellow lefty slugger Anthony
Rizzo. The Cubs do have Rizzo locked up for several years, which
means a trade to another club is very likely in Vogelbach's future.
Meanwhile he has been developing into a very nice power hitting
prospect in the minors, and has consistently produced double-digit
walk rates throughout his career. He has a good chance to develop
into a high OBP, 25 home run per year slugger hitting in the middle
of the order. At the tender age of 21 he is starting the year at
High-A and it would be wise to pounce ASAP if you're looking to
upgrade your farm system. If you dawdle too long, when he inevitably
gets traded is when everyone else in your league will take notice and
his stock will skyrocket.
Kyle Zimmer,
RHP, KC Royals
– Here we find our first highly ranked prospect. In no way can I
call him a sleeper as he was a top 30 prospect on just about every
prospect list this spring. However, this is a case where you can buy
high, so to speak. Lots of owners will look at the 4.82 ERA he put up
in High-A over 89.2 innings last year and assume mediocrity despite
the 11.34 K/9. He also is injured to start 2014 and as of this
writing has yet to throw a pitch in the minors. The reality is that
Zimmer has the potential to be a top of the rotation arm with a 4
pitch arsenal and at least average control. So I say to you, fantasy
baseballer, start up a conversation with the Zimmer owner in your
league. The owner may have trepidations based on the previous years'
ERA, or lack the patience to wade through his current injury.
Assuming Zimmer comes back healthy (which is of course never a safe
assumption with pitchers), he should see AAA this summer, and quite
possibly a second half call up to the show.
Arismendy Alcantara, 2B/SS, Chi Cubs – Here we have the second Cubs prospect that isn't getting the love he deserves. Setting aside the fact that you should own him based purely on his awesome name, Alcantara has sneaky good value for fantasy players. In AA last year Alcantara smashed 55 extra base hits, including 15 home runs, to go along with 31 steals and a .271/.352/.451 slash line. He has surprising pop for being only 5'10”, but he's unlikely to eclipse 20 home runs in a season. That said, a 15/30 middle infielder has tons of value even in points leagues. I say middle infielder because his future position is likely to be determined by some of the other players ahead of him in the Cubs pecking order, i.e. Starlin Castro, Javier Baez and even current second baseman Emilio Bonifacio. Assuming Castro comes back from the dead in 2014 to be anything like what he once was, that will likely push Baez to third (where Kris Bryant would then be pushed to the outfield) or also possibly second base. It's an embarrassment of riches for the Cubs really, but I see Bonifacio getting pushed out sooner rather than later, and Alcantara taking over second base duties in the waning months of 2014 or early 2015 with Baez coming up to play third and Bryant pushed to the outfield. Alcantara is a good enough defender to play anywhere in the infield, so while I don't see the Cubs calling him up to be a utility player, he may be multi-position eligible for parts of his career due to his versatility. As a guy that didn't rank highly on any prospect lists coming into the year, he will be a useful middle infielder for fantasy players for many years to come, possibly hitting second in a lineup ahead of studs like Baez, Bryant and Rizzo. Runs, runs, runs!
Ryan McMahon, 3B, Col Rockies – This is just a case of being the first guy to click the add button. If somebody owns McMahon already they are unlikely to give him up (although you should still try), as this kid is very exciting. Only 19 years old, McMahon was drafted 42nd overall by the Rockies in 2013 as a high upside power hitter who didn't focus solely on baseball until his senior year of high school (he was also a quarterback prospect). There's only 325 PA's to go on statistically this far into his career, but he's done nothing but rake since being drafted, hitting 19 home runs with double-digit walk rates and .300+ averages both in rookie ball and Low-A, where he certainly won't spend much time if he continues to his at this pace. There's been nothing so far to say he can't stick at third defensively, and his 6'2” frame allows for even more future power projection to drool over. His splits against left-handed pitching are terrible (seriously, a .130 BA vs lefties in 2014) but there's oodles of time for him to work on that part of his game, and there are plenty of major league regulars that sport some bad splits but still play every day. I'm not calling him a platoon bat yet. Also, you have to take some of the production with a grain of salt because the Rockies minor league affiliates play in extreme hitters parks, but so is Coors Field, so I say whatever. He's a few years away from the bigs, but if you have the room to stash him in your deep dynasty league, do it now.
No comments:
Post a Comment