Lottery Ticket Starting Pitchers

Written by Joe Osadchy

If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for a while and listen to draft strategies a common theme is
“starting pitching is so deep, you can wait on pitching.” Last year that strategy could have paid off quite nicely if you drafted Matt Harvey in the mid rounds and rode him to a top ten finish, or picked up Jose Fernandez off the waiver wire and got the 6th best pitcher in fantasy. Due to those young studs blowing up, pitchers like Gerrit Cole, Danny Salazar and Sonny Gray shot up the draft boards with people hoping to draft the next great young pitcher. But there were older guys who were even more off the radar the first two weeks of last season who ended the year as top 25 starters. Hisashi Iwakuma was a late rounder in mixed leagues who ended up top ten, and Fransico Liriano was left for dead after flaming out with the Twins and came out of nowhere to finish 19th among starters. If you bought in on these guys early and picked them up or traded for them you very well may have won your league because of it. If you missed out on the young upside pitchers like Cole and Gray on you can still find some undervalued pitchers out there that can bail out your staff if you waited a little too long on draft day. So who can come out of nowhere to be the Liriano or Iwakuma of 2014? Here’s 5 guys who were drafted outside of the top 50 starting pitchers who I think have a shot to finish top 20.

1. Ervin Santana – 52nd pitcher drafted, 203rd overall

Santana got the free agent discount during most drafts, but ended up landing in a potentially better
spot than last year now that he’s in Atlanta. It’s hard to forget how terrible Santana was during some
of his years in Anaheim, he finished with an ERA over 5 in 2007, 2009 and 2012. But because he burned so many people in the past you might have a chance to get him cheap. His strikeout numbers have remained consistent the past few years with a K/9 hovering around 7, so if he is able to keep the homers down I think another year like last year (3.24 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) seems like a safe bet, and he has the upside to be even better than he was last year in KC when he finished 33rd among starters.

2. Scott Kazmir – 70th pitcher drafted, 264th overall

Kazmir is another guy who was so far off the fantasy radar for so long that it might be taking people a
while to buy in. In 2011 and 2012 he threw a grand total of 1.2 innings so it’s not hard to understand
why people forgot about him. But Kazmir had 162 k’s in 152 innings last year, and a 3.4 strikeout to
walk ratio. If he keeps his velocity up and stays healthy he should be even better in Oakland with a solid defense behind him and a better home ballpark. He’s 79% owned in Yahoo leagues, and as long as he stays healthy I think he should be owned in virtually all leagues.

3. Brandon Morrow – 110th pitcher drafted, 385th overall

Morrow was throwing 98 with an 89 mph slider against the Astros, everyone knows the risk but the
reward could be top 20. It’s early, but his fastball velocity is up to 94.5 from 93.5 from last year and his sinker is up 2.5 mph as well. If he stays healthy and throws this hard…. I’ve been in love with Brandon Morrow ever since he struck out 17 in a one-hitter back in 2010 against the Rays. Will I ever get over how good he looked in that one start and realize that he’s been terrible ever since? Apparently not yet.

4. Trevor Bauer – 146th pitcher drafted, 500 overall

Bauer had as much prospect hype as anyone back in 2012, he was ranked as the #22 prospect by Keith Law and generally regarded as a can’t miss guy. Except he missed. Big time. He walked everyone, didn’t listen to the coaches, got traded, and was terrible in the bigs in 2013, so I guess I understand why he is pretty much unowned in redraft leagues. But he looked great in a spot start last week, throwing 96 with his usual great breaking stuff. If you’ve got the bench space he’s not a bad stash, and he’s definitely worth picking up if and when he gets called up again.

5. Edinson Volquez – drafted outside the top 150 pitchers

Last year no one would have thought it was possible for Liriano to finish at 19, so if the Pirates can
work their magic again you could have a bargain. Volquez was once considered to be as good a pitcher as Johnny Cueto, then he lost his command and sucked for several years. This pick is more about the Pirates pitching coaches than about Volquez, but he does have talent and crazier things have happened. Volquez is currently owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues, so he’s as cheap as it gets.

Now these guys might not be the most likely pitchers drafted outside the top 50 to make the leap, I left off guys like Yordano Ventura and Michael Pineda because I think they are owned in all leagues and no one is trading them for cheap. I was looking for guys who have potential, and are under the radar either because they are older and unexciting, or because their prospect luster has worn off.