2014 Fantasy Baseball Busts
by Nathan Dokken
Hey, I like busts as much as the next guy! Er wait...wrong sort of
bust. Moving right along, here's 5 hitters and 5 pitchers I think
will sink your team this year, and underperform given their average
draft position (ADP).
The Hitters
- Chris Davis, 1B, Bal Orioles – Davis won people their leagues last year, as a mid-to-late round pick he absolutely exploded, launching 53 homers with 138 RBI and slashing .286/.370/.634. His success is attributed to his more patient approach at the plate, as he also upped his BB% from 6.6% in 2012 to 10.7% in 2013. So what's not to love? First of all, with all the improvements he made in his game last year, he still struck out a disgusting 29% of the time. Second, after being otherwordly in the first half, he struggled in the second half, batting only .245 with 89 strikeouts in 280 PA's. With strikeout rates that high, his BA is very likely to regress to around the .260-.270 range, more in line with his career norm. He also posted a ridiculously unsustainable 29.6% home run/fly ball rate, which will likely regress to a more normal (for him – still above league average) 20-25%. Finally, there's his price tag: as the 7th overall player drafted, there's no where to go but down. Don't let “Crush” crush your chances at a title this year. First base is very deep, and with names like Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Abreu offering similar power numbers for a much lower price tag, I'd be looking elsewhere in the first round. Projection: 650 PA's, 38 HR, 115 RBI, .265AVG
- Matt Kemp, OF, LA Dodgers – After missing enormous chunks of the last few seasons with myriad injuries, I'm not touching Kemp with a 10 foot kielbasa this year. I have my doubts he will be running as frequently recovering from hamstring and ankle injuries, and shoulder injuries have been known to sap power. If he comes back this year and has some success I'll be glad, since he was such a great player before the injuries. But with a hefty ADP of 49, I'll gladly pass on him for safer options like Starling Marte (ADP 52), Wil Myers (ADP 64) or Jason Heyward (ADP 72). Projection: 450 PA's, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 10 SB, .275 AVG
- Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Bos Red Sox – Middlebrooks has power out the wazoo. That's about the only nice thing I have to say about him. He's got a powerful wazoo. Unfortunately he has contact issues (a below average 74.5% contact rate) and posted nearly a 1:5 BB:K ratio and a .227 BA least year in 374 PA's, eventually getting demoted to AAA. He was actually better upon being recalled towards the end of the year, but I have strong doubts that his minor league stint fixed his contact and strikeout issues. With uber-OBP prospect Garin Cecchini waiting in AAA for an opportunity to make a difference in Boston, if Middlebrooks doesn't refine his wazoo, he could be demoted again. Fortunately, with a 184 ADP as the 20th third baseman drafted, there's plenty of other safer, upside-oozing wazoos like Nolan Arenado (ADP 202) and Anthony Rendon (ADP 263) to wait on. Projection: 300 PA's, 13 HR, 42 RBI, .233 AVG
- Michael Cuddyer, OF, Col Rockies – In between prune juice chugging sessions (to stay regular), the 35 year old Michael Cuddyer will try his best to replicate his impressive 2013 numbers. I have my doubts. Even though he will play half his games in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field, Cuddy had a ridiculous .382 BABIP last year, propelling his career-high (by 47 points!) .331 BA. He can still flash a little power (although he probably farts when he swings, hard to control your bowels at that elderly age), but his lower average and seriously old age will sap it into mediocrity. Maybe if he finds the fountain of youth (which spritzes Milk of Magnesia, FYI) he can still slap 16-18 homers with his cane. Otherwise, he's going to cripple your team with your 104th ADP (33rd OF). There's so many other outfielders with upside in this area, just avoid this old bag at all costs. Projection: 520 PA's, 11 HR, 60 RBI, .260 AVG
- Josh Hamilton, OF, LA Angels – Last year, Josh Hamilton disappointed in a huge way. I'm banking on a repeat. Heading into his age 33 season, just about every arrow is pointing down for him. Don't ask me where these arrows are, just go with it. At this point you're probably skimming over these words while paying more attention to SportsCenter. Pay attention! Hamilton's batted ball distance fell substantially last year, and now playing in the pitchers park in Anaheim rather than Texas where he hit 43 home runs only 2 years ago, that's really not a good thing. Couple that with a 25% K rate, a consistent injury risk (he's actually a risk to miss opening day), a mediocre BA, and a miserable 70% contact rate, and you're looking at a guy that could be on the outs of fantasy relevance. I'd be selling on his name value if I still could in dynasty leagues, and avoiding him in redraft leagues. As the 24th OF drafted and with an ADP of 71, I'd be taking Heyward instead, who is the next player being drafted on average. But of course he's allegedly chewing tobacco again, so that means he's going to his 40 home runs again...right? Projection: 600 PA's, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .255 AVG
The Pitchers
- A.J. Burnett, RHP, Phi Phillies – I always dug Burnett growing up because of his sweet necklace. Unfortunately, for as great a pitcher as Burnett was last year in Pittsburgh, he's another year older (37) and finds himself in Philadelphia, defensively a downgrade from the progressive shifts the Pirates deploy. Citizens Bank Park in Philly is also a much friendlier ballpark for offense than he had at PNC Park in 2013. Given these factors, I'd expect his HR/9 to rise from his impressive 0.52 in '13 to more like where he was at with the Yankees when it varied from 1.09 to 1.47 from '09-'11. Therefore, even if he can limit his walks as he did as a Pirate, I'd expect an inflation of his ERA in 2014. It's also worth mentioning that even though wins are fluky, they are part of our fake game, and as bad as the Phillies are expected to be this year, wins are going to be few and far between even if he does hold up for 200 innings. As SP48 with an ADP of 183 it shouldn't be hard to avoid him, and even at a discount from that draft spot I'm not interested. Projection: 175 IP, 162 K, 4.38 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
- Jered Weaver, RHP, LA Angles – As if it weren't hard enough to like a guy whose name, Jered, is spelled with two “e”'s, he's been steadily declining in almost every underlying metric for the past 2 years. Once a workhorse, posting 200+ inning seasons from '09-'11, Weaver dropped to 188.2 in '12, and due to an elbow injury threw only 154.1 last year. His K/9 has also dipped well below league average, his fastball velocity has declined to a terrifying 86 MPH, and his ground ball rate dropped as his line drive rate climbed. The only thing barring a potential implosion is his excellent control, which has remained steady despite the erosion of his other skills. With an ADP of 107, SP26, he's being drafted off name value with hopes of a bounce back. Unless he has arm replacement surgery I can't see that happening. On a side note, I'm third in line for arm replacement surgery myself, so my chances of dominating the major leagues are looking up! Projection: 180 IP, 135 K, 4.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
- CC Sabathia, LHP, NY Yankees – For all the players that report to camp “in the best shape of their lives”, in the case of CC Sabathia, that may actually be true for the 2014 season. Sabathia lost around 40 pounds this offseason, which I would normally applaud. The downside of this is that he did this last year as well, and his diminished size lead, at least in part, to his diminished velocity. So far this spring training his fastball velocity has been even worse, allegedly sitting around 86, maxing out at 89. Typically pitchers do work their velocity up gradually, but it is abnormal to be down 5 MPH, and has me concerned. He has added a splitter to his arsenal for 2014 to help offset his lost velocity, but this seems to be a last-ditch effort to save his career. He's been well over 200 IP for almost his entire career, including many postseason starts. These innings have finally caught up to the 33 year old, and I fear his days of sub-4 ERA's are over. Some are still optimistic on him, as the 45th SP drafted (ADP 167). His only upside floats on the hopes of his new splitter keeping hitters off-balance enough to keep the ball in the park, but I see far more downside than upside with CC. Projection: 192 IP, 160 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
- Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, Bal Orioles – Last year was a dandy for Ubaldo, who struck out 9.56 per 9 innings and enjoyed the lowest ERA of his career, 3.30. I can't say I foresee a repeat however, as just two years ago he threw up a hideous 4.84 BB% and a 5.40 ERA, losing 17 games for the Indians. While he's found a new home in Baltimore, it's an offensively friendly ballpark, and his pitching mechanics are so inconsistent you never know what kind of start you're going to get. He's a consistently healthy pitcher, easily capable of making 32 starts for your squad, but the fact that he may barely eclipse 180 innings in those 32 starts may keep him from qualifying from many a win. His WHIP will kill you regardless of his strikeouts, and unless he harnesses his control there is little upside from his SP59 draft slot. He's an endgamer in almost any format, so I'd be saving myself the headache and going with a younger, higher upside guy like a Tillman, Kluber or Parker. Projection: 182 IP, 170 K, 4.76 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
- Michael Wacha, RHP, StL Cardinals – There, now you can't say I'm just picking on old guys. Wacha is a thrilling young righty, who came up last year and destroyed as a 22 year old, helping the Cards to the World Series. He's a guy you've got to love in dynasty leagues, but he's being overdrafted in single season leagues. As great as his numbers were last year, he only threw 64.2 regular season innings. He's also only a two-pitch starter, throwing either his fastball or changeup 92% of the time. As good as those pitches are, he will need to develop his breaking ball to keep hitters off balance for a full season starting. The Cardinals may also opt to limit his innings per start in his first full season of MLB action to keep him healthy for a playoff run. This limits his chances for wins and lowers his value in points leagues where you get points for innings pitched. He's the 25th SP drafted (ADP 106), and there are a lot more proven pitchers in that area that will give you around 200 innings, which is certainly a prerequisite for SP1/SP2's on my fantasy roster. Projection: 175 IP, 175 K, 3.26 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
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