Tuesday, March 11, 2014

2014 Sleepers


2014 Sleepers
by Nathan Dokken


This year I've decided to go ahead and do you all a favor and write up some sweet sleepers for your brain. All I ask is to keep in mind your individual league format and keep that in line with expectations. These 10 “sleepers” are guys I feel will outperform their draft slots and turn a profit for your fantasy squad. Now, on with the fantasy goodness!



The Hitters



  1. Oswaldo Arcia, OF, MN Twins – Oswaldo Arcia is a power hitting lefty for your Minnesota Twins. Last year in his first taste of the majors as a 22 year old he struggled, striking out in 31% of his plate appearances and leading to a mediocre .251 batting average. He struggled mightily against breaking pitches, a problem that can only be alleviated with experience. Well he should get plenty of experience this year as a full-time outfielder, and if he can improve his pitch recognition along the way, that batting average should improve. He hit over .300 pretty consistently throughout the minors and eventually his BA should settle around the .280-.290 mark. This real upside here is the power – last year as a rookie, he slugged .430 with a .179 ISO over his 378 PA's, not bad numbers for a 22 year old in (predominantly) a pitchers park. The counting stats may not be great since the Twins lineup is rather limp, but with an ADP of 301 (79th OF off the board), look to nab him as your 5th outfielder with some nice upside on draft day. 2014 Projection: 600 PA's, 23 HR, 65 RBI, .270 AVG
  2. Adam Eaton, OF, ChiSox – Last year at this time, Eaton was all the rage. Garnering Rookie of the Year predictions as a Diamondback, he was going to rock everyone's world. Well as it turned out he missed half the year with injury, hit only .252 in 277 PA's and got traded to the White Sox. Well folks, lets turn that misfortune into profit. While it is a bit disconcerting that Eaton opted for rehab rather than surgery to fix his bum UCL, he's allegedly back to full health and has a green light on the basebaths in 2014, leading off for the Sox. With a delicious 88% contact rate in his 380 Major League PA's, I see that BA climbing steeply with some continued improvement in his line drive rate. Combine that with a strong track record of plate discipline (he slashed .381/.456/.539 in 562 PA's in AAA in 2012) and he's oozing upside like caramel from a squished Milky Way. His walks will make him plenty relevant in points and OBP leagues, and 30+ steals will contribute nicely to your roto leagues as well. Land him as your 5th OF in a 12 team league – with an ADP of 218 and the 60th OF off the board, there's no need to reach. Projection: 700 PA's, 85 R, 5 HR, 35 SB, .290 AVG
  3. Brad Miller, 2B/SS, Sea Mariners – Miller got the call last year after raking in AA and AAA, and was pretty solid in his 335 PA's in the Majors, slashing .265/.318/./418. I expect marked improvement from the “generic white boy named” Miller in nearly every category. In his 999 minor league PA's, he posted double digit walk rates in all but his first 59 PA's in low A ball. For a guy who's only played pro ball exclusively for a few years, he has shown the skills to adjust quickly to more advanced pitching and I expect him to raise his 7.2% BB% from 2013. Assuming the M's hit him 1 or 2 in the order in front of Cano, that should lead him into plenty of run scoring opportunities. He's never been a beast on the basepaths, but his solid contact % and low BABIP from a year ago (.294 was actually 39 points below any previous season for him) should allow for a higher BA, OBP, and a few more homers. As the 223rd player taken in drafts (20th SS/2B drafted) I'd gladly take him over the likes of Jed Lowrie, Howie Kendrick, and Alex Guerrero, all of whom are going 1-3 rounds higher. Projection: 650 PA's, 16 HR, 85 R, 10 SB, .280 AVG
  4. Jason Heyward, OF, Atl Braves - “Ow, my friggin appendix!!” “Ow, my friggin jaw!!” “Damn, I'm sick of eating through a straw!!” “Damn, this facemask is whack!!” Who am I? Well I already wrote his name ya dumbtard, it's Jason Heyward. Dude had a rough go of it last year, but they were fluke injuries. Even through them he managed to net 440 PA's, although they were still disappointing given peoples expectations after going 27/21 in 2012. He also battled through shoulder soreness and a hamstring strain last year, the latter of which may account for his paltry 2 steals. His batting eye was better than ever though as he posted a 10.9% walk rate and cut his K% from 23.3% in 2012 to a much nicer 16.6%. He hit leadoff down the stretch for the Braves and excelled, so there's no reason for the Braves to take him out of that role heading into 2014. If he can keep his OBP around .350, and I think he can, there should be ample runs to be scored atop that potent lineup. I'm not sure how much he will be running however, as the Braves as a whole weren't particularly aggressive on the basebaths, and 21 was a career high for him in 2012. All told, Heyward is being discounted for his fluky injury-riddled season last year, a mega case of recency bias rearing its ugly head. As the 72nd overall player drafted and 26th OF, Heyward is creeping up draft boards, but can still be taken as your OF2 with top 10-15 OF upside. Projection: 675 PA's, 100 R, 28 HR, 7 SB, .260 AVG
  5. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, ChiSox – Now this is a hard one to justify. We have no real statistical evidence to back up Abreu will be good at all, as the Dominican stats can be fluky. This one is more of a gut call, a calculated risk based on potential upside and average draft position. Said ADP is currently 98 overall, 17th 1B drafted. Everyone who's seen him play says he's the best player to ever come out of Cuba, some calling him the “Cuban Barry Bonds”. Clay Davenport, who translates Cuban stats to approximate MLB equivalencies, pretty much nailed Cespedes' production in the majors. His translation of what Abreu would have done from last year is a .298/.393/.576 slash line. Those are some very nice numbers. Some scouts question his bat speed, and voice concerns over a low BA due to inability to catch up to premium velocity (something that very few pitchers have in Cuba), but one thing that no one can question is his massive raw power. If he can indeed adjust to MLB pitching and post respectable K% and BA, his power will vault him much, much higher than his price tag will cost you. There are few players in baseball that have 40+ HR potential, none of which will be this cheap on draft day. Projection: 650 PA's, 35 HR, 90 RBI, .260 AVG



The Pitchers



  1. Jose Fernandez, RHP, Mia Marlins – Whoa, whoa, easy there big guy. No need to hurl all those expletives my way. Yes, I know this is a sleeper column. YES, I know the Fern is already being drafted 38th overall as the 8th pitcher off the board. What I'm telling you is that's not high enough. Now, I can't blame you if you want to take the safe route and nab a more established pitcher like Scherzer of Cliff Lee. But let's quickly look at the Fern's numbers from 2013: 172.2 IP (28 starts), 12-6, 9.75 K/9, 3.02 BB/9, 2.19 ERA. Ace numbers, one of the best rookie seasons of all time...and he was a 20 year old that had never pitched above High-A. I'll freely admit I passed on him in every league last year thinking the Marlins are insane throwing a kid to the wolves like that, much to my regret. Needless to say I've come around on the kid and learned from my mistakes. One might think that over 172.2 innings, the kid must have worn down. Not the case, in fact...he got better. Since the Marlins were capping his innings per start, he began pitching more to contact to induce grounders and chew up more innings. Well, his innings shouldn't be as much of a concern this year, although Miami may still shut him down around 200 just to preserve their star pitcher for the future. Wins will still be hard to come by playing for the Marlins, but everything else you get from Fernandez is delicious Cuban gravy. His arsenal is the stuff of dreams, and those 200 innings will be as good as you get from guys outside of Kershaw and Darvish. If you bail on those guys and take Fernandez as a cheaper option in the 3rd-4th round as your staff ace, you can still turn a profit on that selection while also having your first 2 picks fortify your hitting. Projection: 200 IP, 225 K, 2.83 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
  2. Justin Masterson, RHP, Cle Indians – Now here's a guy I never thought I'd be writing about in a sleeper column. I've always had a distaste for him due to his high propensity for blow up starts. That propensity is still there, mind you, but it's the whole picture that's improved. Namely, his step forward he took against left-handed batters in 2013. In 2011 and 2012, his batting average against (BAA) lefties was .286 and .288. In '13, he dropped that to .245, while also dropping his BAA vs righties nearly 30 points. He also got much better as the season wore on – his final numbers (3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) aren't completely indicative of how good he was in the second half last year. His first half numbers: 135.1 IP, 3.72 ERA. Second half: 57.2 IP, 2.81 ERA. Granted the second half is a smaller sample size, but the point remains. Oh yeah, and he upped his K/9 by 2.15, reduced his walks and was about on par with his FIP and xFIP. Way down at SP50, 187th off the board, I like his chances to crack the top 30 this year. Projection: 200 IP, 210 K, 3.20 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
  3. Clay Buchholz, RHP, BoSox – Buchholz was phenomenal in 2013. 1.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP. So why is he dropping all the way down to SP52, the 197th player drafted? In a word, health. The annually injured righty managed only 108.1 innings before missing the rest of the season. So how did he not only up his K/9 by almost 2 and lower his ERA to the lowest of his career? Much of the praise has to go to the Red Sox pitching coach Juan Nieves, hired after the 2012 season, for ironing out Buchholz' mechanics and timing. While I can't project a sub-2 ERA again, a sub-3 ERA is conceivable. If he can stay healthy, and that's a massive if, his ceiling is immense. Projection: 165 IP, 150 K, 2.97 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
  4. Rex Brothers, LHP, Col Rockies – Upon the departure of the elderly Rafael Betancourt at the end of the 2013 season, everyone thought “Well, Rex has waited long enough, looks like he finally will get a shot at being the full time closer in Colorado.” And then the Rockies went out and said “Screw you all!” and signed 41-year old LaTroy Hawkins in the offseason. They inexplicably dropped $2.5 million on another relic to block Brothers, who filled in for Betancourt admirably when he was injured in '13. Although having a lefty closer isn't the norm, Brothers doesn't have terrible platoon splits. He also doesn't have great control (4.81 BB/9 in '13) but his 10+K/9 is enough to make up for a high walk rate as a reliever. Due to the fact that Hawkins more or less has the closer job to open the season, Brothers has dropped all the way to 233rd overall, the 33rd RP off the board, behind the likes of Neftali Feliz (not guaranteed the closer job, having his own problems), Tommy Hunter (apparently closing in Baltimore, unproven), and Jose Veras (hot garbage ratios, may not keep the job in Chicago). It's only a matter of time until Brothers overtakes Hawkins for the gig in Colorado, and in the meantime he should present you with a nice ERA and K's, although the WHIP may remain ugly if he can't harness his control better. Projection: 67 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 25 SV
  5. Patrick Corbin, LHP, Ari Diamondbacks – Corbin came somewhat out of nowhere last year, winning a starting job out of spring training after beating out better known names like Trevor Bauer and Randall Delgado. He proceeded to impress beyond belief through the first half of the season, posting a 2.35 ERA in 130.1 innings. Unfortunately the second half turned ugly for the young lefty, as he put up a 5.19 ERA in 78 innings. His velocity declined, a strong indication that he was probably just tired. It's also a possibility batters figured out a pitch or two, perhaps his sequencing became predictable, or maybe he was tipping his pitches. Whatever the case, I expect an adjustment to be made on his part and a return to form will ensue, with the possibility of upside coming from his SP46, ADP 187 draft position. Projection: 215 IP, 187 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.14 WHIP (UPDATE: Corbin has unfortunately undergone Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2014 season. I wish him well in his recovery.)
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